Houston @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Cooper Criswell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz today... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yainer Diaz in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Cooper Criswell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's matchup... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Criswell's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.

Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Cooper Criswell today... and moreover, Criswell has a large platoon split.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects the most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today. Given Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jose Altuve will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's game. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams on the slate today. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Altuve in today's matchup.

Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Ranking in the 89th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.94 ft/sec this year, Jacob Melton is very toolsy.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Victor Caratini hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Victor Caratini has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.3-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.1-mph. Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 14°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Considering Cooper Criswell's large platoon split, Jesus Sanchez will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. Jesus Sanchez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Abraham Toro is penciled in 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Abraham Toro hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Abraham Toro will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph recently.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Wilyer Abreu are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown.

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Roman Anthony will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown in today's game. Roman Anthony has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive skill to be a .326, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .028 difference between that figure and his actual .298 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Mauricio Dubon has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 12.1% to 20.2%. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 42.6% on the season to 57.8% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 16.5% to 19.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Carlos Correa is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums. Carlos Correa has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.2-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Fenway Park profiles as the #4 field in MLB for left-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The #4 venue in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 2nd-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Carlos Narvaez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 93.8-mph in the last 14 days. Ranking in the 80th percentile, Carlos Narvaez sports a .322 BABIP this year.

Cooper Hummel has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.