The Seattle Mariners have dropped two in a row to begin this weekend series with the San Diego Padres, but my Padres vs. Mariners predictions believe Seattle's significant pitching advantage will enable them to salvage a game from this interleague affair tonight.
Read on for my free MLB picks for May 17, and don't miss JD Yonke's Padres vs. Mariners props for Sunday Night Baseball.
Who will win Padres vs Mariners tonight: Mariners moneyline (-157)
George Kirby gives the Seattle Mariners a tremendous advantage on the mound, and that will allow them to coast to victory.
Kirby doesn't rack up Ks (38th percentile), but he gets batters to chase (92nd percentile), and doesn't issue many free passes (17th in BB/9 innings among qualified starters).
The San Diego Padres lineup has been absolutely awful in May, ranking dead-last in OPS (.593).
Countering Kirby is Lucas Giolito, who makes his season debut. His minor-league rehab starts do not inspire confidence, as he recorded a 4.76 ERA across 17 innings. He also had a 5.01 xERA in 2025.
COVERS INTEL: The Padres are seventh-worst in the majors in chase rate (32.9%).
Padres vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-110)
I'm expecting a heavy dose of the Padres bullpen in this one with Giolito making his first start of 2026, and this unit is fifth by ERA in May (2.24). The Mariners offense is solid but not scary, ranking 16th in OPS.
Seattle is also swing-happy, ranking third-worst in whiff rate (27.7%). That plays directly into the hands of San Diego's relievers, who rank second in K/9 innings (10.91) this month.
The Mariners' bullpen shouldn't be taxed too heavily behind Kirby, but this a strong relief corps. Seattle relievers are eighth by ERA in May (2.38).
Padres vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Padres +130 | Mariners -150
- Run line: Padres +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Mariners trend
The Mariners are 5-1 across Kirby's last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.
How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Sunday, May 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Padres starting pitcher | Lucas Giolito (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (5-2, 2.84 ERA) |
Padres vs Mariners latest injuries
Padres vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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