MLB Picks

David Peterson has allowed 2.76 homers per nine innings over the last 30 days, which is the highest total among all of today’s projected starters.

While Andre Pallante has mostly pitched well of late, it’s worth noting one of the hiccups came against the Chicago Cubs – he allowed four runs in three innings May 29.

With struggling bullpens behind these starters, the sky is the limit.

Play the Over to -120.

James Wood's recent numbers absolutely scream #DUE. Over his last 30 at bats against right handed pitching, he is batting just .083 with a .125 SLG, but the underlying metrics tell a completely different story. During that stretch, Wood owns an absurd 92.3% hard hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate, making it hard to believe the results will not follow. Tonight, he faces Mitch Keller, who has surrendered a 44.2% hard hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate, 2.02 HR/9, and .650 xSLG to left handed hitters over his last 60 batters faced.

I have not been able to get on the right side of Juan Soto this season, but this is a matchup worth backing. Grant Holmes has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 44% hard hit rate and 63.6% elevation rate, while the last 60 lefties he has faced own a .574 xSLG and .362 xwOBA against him. Soto also owns an 89% arsenal coverage against Holmes' below average pitch mix. Add in Soto's recent form, a 52.4% hard hit rate, .609 SLG, and 1.042 OPS over his last 30 at-bats versus righties, and the long ball is firmly in play.

Logan Webb's 13-1 NRFI record and seven consecutive scoreless first innings make him well-equipped to cool off a Rockies team that has scored early in three straight games. Ryan Feltner has also excelled in the opening frame, while San Francisco hasn't scored in the first inning in five consecutive contests.

The Astros slugger enters Friday with an elite Batters-Box rating while covering 100% of Nick Martinez's pitch mix. It marks Alvarez's 19th elite rating of the season, and he has homered in nearly 28% of the previous 18. Over his last 60 plate appearances against right handed pitching, Alvarez owns a .532 SLG, 1.015 OPS, and .447 wOBA with a 54.3% hard hit rate and 20% barrel rate. Martinez has been crushed by lefties lately, making this another prime spot for Alvarez to leave the yard.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.