MLB Picks

It’s one of those days where the best hitter in baseball is projecting as +EV to go deep at +240 or better. Aaron Judge sits right at the top of the home run prop projections at Covers today, and he’ll either face a Baltimore bullpen game or Trevor Rogers returning from the IL. Either scenario is bad news for the Orioles’ relievers, who are likely going to have to cover plenty of innings. Only one bullpen has thrown more innings over the last two weeks than the Baltimore Orioles at 56, and they also own the ninth-worst ERA during that span at 4.66. Their co-closers, Rico Garcia and Anthony Núñez, have both pitched on back-to-back days and are likely unavailable today. Judge should also benefit from a 7-mph wind blowing out to left field, and Camden Yards still features some of the shortest dimensions in baseball down the lines.

Paul Skenes has electric stuff, and this matchup against the Colorado Rockies sets up perfectly for a dominant outing. The Pirates ace owns a 2.36 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 42 innings, and Colorado strikes out more than any team in baseball. The Rockies are averaging over 12 Ks across their last three games, giving Skenes strong value to clear this number.

Elly De La Cruz is red-hot at the plate, batting .367 over the last week while recording three straight multi-hit performances. The Reds star also crushed Houston for seven hits in the previous series. He now faces struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, who owns an ERA above seven. De La Cruz is batting .333 against Mikolas lifetime and thrives at home with a .346 average.

With the Phillies heating up at the plate, I’m taking the Over tonight. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings, and they scored 22 runs in the weekend series against the Colorado Rockies. That included four homers from Kyle Schwarber, with Alec Bohm and Harper also joining the party.

Philadelphia has also finished with 9+ hits in five of its last six games, so watch for solid production here, with Boston expected to use an opener before turning things over to Brayan Bello. The Red Sox offense is the biggest cause for pause here, but the possible return of Willson Contreras here would give the lineup a boost.

Bobby Witt Jr. at +400 to hit a home run with the wind blowing out to his pull side at Rate Field at 18 mph? Yeah, I’ll gladly hit the button on that number. Erick Fedde has allowed five home runs over his last two starts, and seven of the eight home runs he’s given up this season have come against right-handed hitters. Witt also has notable reverse splits when it comes to power. Twenty-two of the 23 home runs he hit last season came against right-handed pitching. On top of that, Witt has been swinging a hot bat lately, and at +400, this is simply too good of a price to pass up.

Andrew Vaughn has popped up on the projections at Covers for the first time, with a fair home run price around +480 today. American Family Field ranks as the sixth-best home run park for right-handed hitters, and Vaughn is into his sixth game since missing most of the season, so the rust appears gone. He’s already homered, owns a .880 OPS, and his 35.3% BlastContact rate over the last 14 days ranks second in all of baseball, thanks to an absurd 47.1% SqUpContact rate. The right-handed bat also gets to attack knuckleballs today with Matt Waldron on the mound. Waldron’s floater can disappear quickly, and after a strong outing last time out plus a road start here, a rough performance feels more likely than another good one for a pitcher carrying a 7.71 ERA.

Mother Nature should help generate some runs in Minnesota today with 19-mph winds screaming out to center field. Eury Pérez has been giving up home runs on fly balls, while Bailey Ober owns a groundball rate that ranks in the bottom half of MLB starters. In fact, both pitchers carry groundball rates below 37%. Add in a Minnesota Twins bullpen sporting a 6.93 ERA over the last two weeks, and the runs could keep coming all game long. THE BAT is projecting 10.32 total runs.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to shine atop the Dodgers rotation, striking out 40 hitters in 43.2 innings this season. The Japanese right-hander has cashed this prop in three of his last four starts, including an eight-strikeout performance against Houston last time out. Yamamoto already fanned seven Giants earlier this season, and San Francisco strikes out significantly more often on the road.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.