Sunday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I'm targeting to leave their mark this afternoon.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 James Wood |
+299 |
 Elly De La Cruz |
+289 |
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+312 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +6095 |
Home run pick: James Wood (+299)
I have to be on Washington Nationals slugger James Wood this afternoon. For starters, New York Yankees starter Will Warren has allowed the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced to produce a 45% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and just a 15% ground-ball rate. Yes, they're elevating the baseball 85% of the time!
Those lefties are also posting a .433 xBA, .706 xSLG, and .371 xwOBA during that stretch.
On top of owning 93% arsenal coverage against Warren, Wood has been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats against righties, he is generating a 66.7% hard-hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate, while producing a .685 ISO, 1.053 SLG, and 1.653 OPS.
He's easily my favorite play of the day.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, NATS
Home run pick: Elly De La Cruz (+289)
Cincinnati Reds star Elly De La Cruz finds himself in a great matchup this afternoon against Chicago Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd. Cruz enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he carries 82.6% arsenal coverage against Boyd’s pitch mix.
Left-handed pitching has been the star’s bread and butter this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws, Cruz owns a .400 BA, .840 SLG, 1.340 OPS, and .440 ISO. During that stretch, he's also generating a 64.7% hard-hit rate and 29.4% barrel rate.
Boyd has struggled against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a 48.8% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate while hitters are elevating the baseball 70.2% of the time. Righties also own a .489 xSLG and .349 xwOBA against him.
Sal Stewart is in a great spot this afternoon as well, but I think Cruz is the better look, especially with his 50% HR/FB rate. Cruz missile incoming!
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, CINR
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+312)
Mr. Bobby Witt Jr. finds himself in a great spot against the Milk Man, Shane Baz, as he owns nearly 72% arsenal coverage against Baz’s entire pitch mix, per Batters-Box. Witt Jr. also carries an elite rating, and in 26 elite-rated matchups away from home over the last three seasons, he has left the yard over 26% of the time.
Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the Kansas City Royals star is keeping the ball elevated 70% of the time while posting a .500 SLG and .250 ISO during that stretch.
Baz has struggled against right-handed bats at home this season, allowing a .291 batting average, .488 SLG, and .368 wOBA. Over his last 60 batted balls, he is also allowing a .459 xBA, .618 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA.
With temperatures in the 80s this afternoon, I think everything above only increases Witt Jr.’s chances of leaving the yard.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, MASN
- HR picks: 79-273, +12.5 units
Today’s HR parlay
| James Wood |
Bet Now +6095 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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