The Toronto Blue Jays go for the series win in the final game before the All-Star break, sending Kevin Gausman to the mound against the San Diego Padres and Germán Márquez.
Toronto’s bats have woken up in San Diego, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the way into a matchup he should feast on. Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks for this Sunday, July 12, matchup.
Blue Jays vs Padres predictions
Blue Jays vs Padres best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hits in four straight games, including a multi-hit day on Saturday with a three-run homer. He’s slowly finding his groove, and he draws a very hittable pitcher in Germán Márquez.
Márquez is still working his way back from a forearm injury and carries a 5.02 ERA, surrendering 10 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings across his first two starts back.
He walks his share of hitters, too, and when a lineup gets to him, it tends to get to him in bunches. That’s good for Vladdy’s chance, as offensive momentum is contagious.
I’m comfortable playing this down to +100.
COVERS INTEL: German Márquez has a weak fastball (-3 run value, .462 opponent slugging), which works great for Vladdy, since he’s hit for a +4 run value on the four-seamer, per Baseball Savant.
Blue Jays vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
For the SGP, I’m riding the Toronto Blue Jays moneyline to close out the series, with Kevin Gausman looking locked back in. I’ll add Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts, since he’s already piled up 108 punchouts this season and this lineup is the right one to chase them against.
I’ll cap it with the Over 9. Saturday’s game sailed Over the number, and Gausman could give some runs back with Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. owning good track records against him.
Blue Jays vs Padres SGP
- Blue Jays moneyline
- Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts
- Over 9
Blue Jays vs Padres home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+255)
As we covered above, Germán Márquez has trouble with his fastball, and Kazuma Okamoto feasts on poor fastballs. He owns a +12 run value on four-seamers this year, by far the best mark on this team.
Even better, 15 of Okamoto’s 22 home runs have come on fastballs, and he’s gone deep three times in his last five games. When Márquez leaves a heater over the plate today, Okamoto is the guy who makes him pay. I’d keep this to a quarter unit and play it until +225.
- Best bets: 7-2, +4.63 units
- SGPs: 2-8, -0.31 units
- HR picks: 2-8, -0.28 units
Blue Jays vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Toronto -130 | San Diego +110
- Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+130) | San Diego +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Blue Jays vs Padres trend
Germán Márquez is getting squared up all season, allowing a 45.8% hard-hit rate with a .379 wOBA against, per Baseball Savant. His weak stats form the foundation for my Blue Jays bets today. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Padres.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 7-12-2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.32 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | German Marquez (4-2, 5.02 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Padres latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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