Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. Hitting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. Extreme flyball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Walker Buehler. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. Hitting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Junior Caminero will have a disadvantage in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams today. Jonathan Aranda will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. Typically, batters like Chandler Simpson who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Walker Buehler.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The weather report predicts the 6th-most suitable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this game, the best of the day for hurlers. This year, there has been a decline in Jarren Duran's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.6 ft/sec last year to 29.12 ft/sec currently. Jarren Duran has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 6.5° figure is among the lowest in MLB this year (10th percentile).

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Taylor Walls has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Taylor Walls's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 15.8% to 19.4%. When it comes to his batting average, Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year. His .211 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler. Danny Jansen has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph average. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.6°) is a significant increase over his 21.6° mark last season.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Marcelo Mayer will have an edge today. Marcelo Mayer has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Marcelo Mayer will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and David Hamilton will hold that advantage in today's game. David Hamilton has been unlucky this year, compiling a .226 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .279 — a .053 disparity.

The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an edge in today's matchup. Matt Thaiss hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Matt Thaiss has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.34 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Posting a 1.55 K/BB rate this year, Matt Thaiss has demonstrated strong plate discipline, ranking in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's matchup. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 13th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's game. The Barrel% of Romy Gonzalez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.5% last year to 15.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last year to 16.2% this season. Christopher Morel has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Ceddanne Rafaela has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 7.6% rate last year to 13.3% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Roman Anthony will hold the platoon advantage over Taj Bradley today. Roman Anthony has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. The #4 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field dimensions in Major League Baseball. Abraham Toro will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro is in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.6% rate this year).

Trevor Story's BABIP ability is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 75th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Trevor Story demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a core ability for achieving a high batting average.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) implies that Ha-seong Kim has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .237 actual batting average. Ha-seong Kim has exhibited good plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 97th percentile with a 1.36 K/BB rate.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Fenway Park as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences among all major league stadiums. Carlos Narvaez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Placing in the 80th percentile, Carlos Narvaez has put up a .350 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Josh Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.