Texas @ San Diego Picks & Props

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Evan Carter ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Evan Carter is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Evan Carter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's game. Evan Carter hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Petco Park projects as the #24 stadium in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to less offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-best for pitching of all games on the slate. Manny Machado has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph dropping to 88.2-mph in the past two weeks.

Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 16.7%. Jonah Heim has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89-mph mark. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, increasing from 44.8% on the season to 57.1% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Higashioka are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Stephen Kolek. Kyle Higashioka has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.3-mph average. Over the last two weeks, Kyle Higashioka's 35.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Hitting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Xander Bogaerts will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Petco Park ranks as the #24 park in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to less offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-best for pitching of all games on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Luis Arraez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 85.4-mph.

Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Elias Diaz will be in a tough position today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today. Elias Diaz has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91-mph average to last season's 88.3-mph average. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (17°) is significantly higher than his 7.3° mark last season.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph EV. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 106.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 95.7-mph. Gavin Sheets's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 45.6% on the season to 58.8% in the past week's worth of games. Gavin Sheets has notched a .341 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Burger has been unlucky this year, putting up a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .064 gap. This year, Jake Burger's 13.2% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 83rd percentile among his peers. Jake Burger's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to evaluate power) has been 114.7 mph this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Adolis Garcia has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last season's 91-mph EV. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this year (20.1°) is significantly higher than his 14.8° angle last season.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Despite posting a .314 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck given the .039 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .353. Wyatt Langford's 12.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) is in the 81st percentile this year.

Petco Park projects as the #24 stadium in MLB for righty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which often leads to less offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-best for pitching of all games on the slate. In the past week's worth of games, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 37.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Batting from the same side that Jack Leiter throws from, Jose Iglesias encounters a tough challenge in today's game. Jose Iglesias will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jose Iglesias has been unlucky this year, putting up a .251 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .029 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Marcus Semien is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitters such as Marcus Semien with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Stephen Kolek who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Marcus Semien has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal figure of 91.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage today. Jackson Merrill's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 45.7% to 52.5%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Corey Seager will have an edge today. Corey Seager has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 16% seasonal rate to 37.5% over the last 7 days.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Josh Smith will have an edge today. As it relates to plate discipline, Josh Smith's skill is quite impressive, putting up a 1.74 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 79th percentile. In notching a .283 batting average this year, Josh Smith finds himself in the 84th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Among all major league stadiums, Petco Park's CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Jake Cronenworth will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 7.2% to 18.2%. Jake Cronenworth has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 88.4-mph mark.

Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Alejandro Osuna will have an edge in today's game. Alejandro Osuna hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Alejandro Osuna has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days. Alejandro Osuna has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.6-mph average. Over the last 7 days, Alejandro Osuna has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 14.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 6.4°.