We're looking at even money (or better) plays for both of our favorite MLB picks heading into the final weekend of May.
Why should you back the Phillies tonight (vs. the Dodgers) and the Orioles against the Jays? Read on to find out!
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: BAL ML |
+100 |
 Jon Metler: PHI ML |
+108 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Orioles moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
The Jays have the pressure of getting back to .500 today, but they’re also extremely shorthanded on the mound. Toronto is rolling with a bullpen game and is likely without its three best relievers in Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman, and closer Louis Varland, all of whom pitched on back-to-back days — and Toronto hasn’t had a day off all week. Triple-A call-up Austin Voth will likely be asked to cover innings, and he owns a career 4.70 ERA across 360 MLB innings with 61 home runs allowed. This grades out as one of the biggest +EV plays on the board today, per THE BAT projections, which have a fair price around -188 on this moneyline. Reliever availability is a massive edge that doesn’t appear to be fully priced into the current number
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- How to watch: MASN, SN1
Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 48¢ (+108) at Polymarket
This one is pretty simple: If the market is giving me plus money on the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound, I’m going to hit the button every time. The Phillies are trading around 48 cents on the moneyline, but I make them closer to 53-cent (-113) favorites in this matchup. The Dodgers are built around veteran hitters who excel at working counts, drawing walks, and capitalizing on mistakes for extra-base damage. The problem is: That approach doesn’t work nearly as well against Wheeler, who owns an elite 1.91 BB/9 this season and rarely gives lineups free opportunities on the bases. He forces teams to earn everything offensively, and he does it while pitching efficiently enough to work deep into games and limit exposure to the bullpen.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Apple TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yankees -1.5 | +108 |
| Read analysis in our Yankees vs. A's predictions | |
| Pirates ML | -134 |
| Read analysis in our Twins vs. Pirates predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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