The home run grind rolls into a great Friday slate, and the +EV dingers and MLB player props are plentiful today.
It's never a bad idea to look for home runs in Cincinnati, but the pitching matchup is making it even better today, and getting the No. 2 HR/FB hitter in baseball at a price north of +500 is also making the card.
These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 29.
Best MLB home run props today
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Mike Yastrzemski
Bryce Harper 
Home run pick: Mike Yastrzemski (+577)
Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT.
He’s in strong form right now with the team’s third-best slugging percentage and wOBA over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month.
He’ll face Chris Paddack, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his Bottom-10 xFIP among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real.
Pitcher/hitter history is usually secondary, but it’s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVision
Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+527)
Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
That’s good news for a Bryce Harper bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber at 37.5%.
Harper’s fly-ball rate hasn’t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There's often value in targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty vs. lefty matchup.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Apple TV
- HR picks: 13-100, -32.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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