The stars are out in Southern California as the heavily favored Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday night, with the game to be broadcast on Apple TV at 10:15 p.m. ET.
With ace Zack Wheeler on the mound and a red-hot, fully rested bullpen behind him, my Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions like this visitors in a low-scoring contest.
Read on for my full analysis and pick against the total with my MLB picks for Friday, May 29.
Who will win Phillies vs Dodgers tonight: Phillies (+100)
This game offers a choice between fool’s gold and pure gold.
Fool’s gold: Los Angeles Dodgers starter Justin Wrobleski and his 3.07 ERA. He doesn’t make batters miss (second percentile whiff rate, fifth percentile K rate) or induce grounders (36.7%), so all that glitters ain’t.
Pure gold: Zack Wheeler, 1.67 ERA. It’s the third consecutive season his ERA is under 2.75. He limits free passes (88th percentile walk rate) and generates a 98th percentile chase rate.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been destroying southpaws (135 wRC+ in May) and face a hittable one, so I’d play it up to -105.
COVERS INTEL: With winds of 6-12 mph blowing out, Wrobleski’s high fly-ball rate (44.4%) is an issue against a Phillies lineup that makes loud contact (38% hard-hit rate against LHP this month).
Phillies vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-120)
This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day.
Philadelphia has an unreal 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span and recently had an incredible 38-inning scoreless streak from the bullpen snapped.
The Philles have cashed the Over just nine times in 26 away games, whereas the Dodgers have done so 11 times in 28 home games.
Interim manager Don Mattingly has changed the Phillies’ identity, and they’ve gone 2-14 O/U in the last 16 games.
- ML/RL bets: 16-17, -5.33 units
- Over/Under bets: 26-9, +16.54 units
Phillies vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +105 | Dodgers -116
- Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-205) | Dodgers -1.5 (+177)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Dodgers trend
The Phillies have hit the Under in six consecutive games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Phillies vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, May 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (4-0, 1.67 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Justin Wrobleski (6-2, 3.07 ERA) |
Phillies vs Dodgers latest injuries
Phillies vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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