Texas @ San Diego Picks & Props

Petco Park profiles as the #23 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. Kumar Rocker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 8th-worst field in the league for left-handed batting average. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. Jackson Merrill has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 11.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days. In the past week, Jackson Merrill's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

Petco Park profiles as the #23 field in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. Kumar Rocker will hold the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today's game. Manny Machado has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph dropping to 88.5-mph in the last week's worth of games.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Martin Maldonado will hold that advantage today. Martin Maldonado's 93.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 76th percentile since the start of last season. Martin Maldonado's 16.1° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the most flyball-inducing in the league: 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Osuna in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Alejandro Osuna will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today. Alejandro Osuna hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Alejandro Osuna has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 7% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last week's worth of games. Alejandro Osuna has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 104.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 96.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Evan Carter in the 80th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Evan Carter is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Evan Carter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez today. Evan Carter hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. In comparison to his 91-mph average last year, Adolis Garcia's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.1 mph. There has been a significant improvement in Adolis Garcia's launch angle from last year's 14.8° to 20.1° this year.

Jonah Heim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jonah Heim has made notable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.9% seasonal rate to 12.9% over the last two weeks. Jonah Heim has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 92.4-mph over the last 14 days. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, increasing from 44.8% on the season to 61.3% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Petco Park as the 8th-worst field in the league for left-handed batting average. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts the 4th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games today. From last season to this one, Luis Arraez's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.9 mph to 85.4 mph. Luis Arraez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .306 mark is considerably higher than his .291 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 9th-best batter in baseball. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Corey Seager will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Corey Seager's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16% up to 38.9%.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 35.7% over the past 14 days. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Kyle Higashioka has experienced some negative variance this year. His .256 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .282.

Josh Smith is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Josh Smith will have the upper hand today. Josh Smith has notched a .286 batting average this year, placing in the 86th percentile.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage today. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph mark. In the last week's worth of games, Gavin Sheets's 55% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 84th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Marcus Semien is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Marcus Semien has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 8.3% seasonal rate to 19% over the past 7 days. In the last week, Marcus Semien's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 99.3-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Burger in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake Burger has been unlucky given the .062 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339. This year, Jake Burger's 13.2% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers. Placing in the 90th percentile, the hardest ball Jake Burger has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Batting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Trenton Brooks will have an edge in today's matchup. Trenton Brooks will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Trenton Brooks has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 24.85 ft/sec to 25.89 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Xander Bogaerts hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Xander Bogaerts has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 89.6-mph mark. Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, notching a .307 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .024 difference.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Petco Park. Hitting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today. Over the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 7.2% to 14.8%.

Sam Haggerty has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.