New York @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Given Justin Hagenman's large platoon split, Trea Turner will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game. Trea Turner's launch angle lately (8.6° over the past week) is significantly worse than his 12° seasonal angle. In terms of his batting average, Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year. His .300 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .280.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Citizens Bank Park as the 5th-worst venue in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Justin Hagenman will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Bohm in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering Hagenman's large platoon split.

Brett Baty will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler today. Brett Baty has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Brett Baty usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Brett Baty has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 5.5% rate last year to 15.3% this season.

Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage against Zack Wheeler today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ronny Mauricio in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The switch-hitting Ronny Mauricio will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ronny Mauricio's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.5% up to 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Bryson Stott will have the handedness advantage against Justin Hagenman in today's game... and moreover, Hagenman has a large platoon split. Bryson Stott is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Brandon Nimmo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today.

Max Kepler is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Max Kepler will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Hagenman in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Hagenman has a large platoon split. Max Kepler is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Jeff McNeil is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Jeff McNeil will have an edge today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Compared to last season, Jeff McNeil has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.3% to 21% this season.

Starling Marte's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Starling Marte is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today.

Otto Kemp's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Otto Kemp will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.362) may lead us to conclude that Luis Torrens has had some very poor luck this year with his .287 actual wOBA. Luis Torrens's 12.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 86th percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, Luis Torrens has an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph, which is among the best in the game at the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Francisco Lindor is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. In the last week, Francisco Lindor's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6-mph over the course of the season to 98.7-mph in recent games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 14th-best batter in baseball. Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Pete Alonso has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 13.2% rate last year to 20.5% this season.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.9-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph average.

Nick Castellanos's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nick Castellanos is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. Nick Castellanos will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Tyrone Taylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today. Over the past two weeks, Tyrone Taylor's 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.8%. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyrone Taylor has been unlucky this year. His .285 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .308.

Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Jared Young will have an edge today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the weakest among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today. J.T. Realmuto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. In the last 7 days, J.T. Realmuto's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.1%.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Justin Hagenman today... and the cherry on top, Hagenman has a large platoon split. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best batter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP ability. Considering Justin Hagenman's large platoon split, Brandon Marsh will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Marsh can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.