Brazil are clear favorites to win their face-off vs Japan in Houston.
Yet the Asian underdogs can do better than expected, and I back them to avoid defeat in a high-scoring Round of 32 clash.
Read on for my Brazil vs. Japan predictions and World Cup picks for Monday, June 29, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 pm ET.
TOP PICK
Who will win Brazil vs Japan: Draw (+291)
Brazil’s status as the most successful nation in World Cup history often results in their odds being shorter than they should be. That is the case here, and one of several reasons why the ‘Selecao’ should be opposed.
Carlo Ancelotti’s players won two of their three Group C fixtures by 3-0 scorelines. Yet neither of the two sides they beat - Haiti and Scotland - have made the knockout phase, underlining that the two convincing victories offer limited insight into how this far more challenging fixture may unfold.
At the time of writing, the prices say Japan stand only a 41% chance of avoiding defeat. The underdogs are underrated given that they went unbeaten (W1-D2-L0) through their three Group F fixtures.
Their price looks even more appealing given that they deservedly drew 2-2 against the Netherlands, who are clear favorites in the Round of 32 to beat Morocco, who deservedly took points off Brazil (1-1) in the group phase.
It may be too much to ask Japan to win in regulation time. But Hajime Moriyasu’s players should outperform the market. Play the draw at anything up to +250.
Brazil vs Japan Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 Goals (+101)
While the World Cup has been a high-scoring tournament so far, there is no guarantee that the goals-heavy trends we witnessed throughout the group phase will continue into the knockout rounds. For that reason, proceed with caution in the goal markets until we know more.
That said, as the marginal outsider of the two, Over 2.5 Goals looks the value play in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market here.
Brazil and Japan’s six opening-round games produced 18 goals (an average of three per game). The average xG (Expected Goals) across those six games was 2.57 (albeit swelled by Brazil’s high xG in their 3-0 win over Scotland).
The way I expect Japan to play is another reason to support Overs. They attacked cleverly and scored in all three of their group games (2-2 vs Netherlands, 4-0 vs Tunisia, 1-1 vs Sweden).
I expect Japan to use Morocco’s group-stage performance vs Brazil (1-1) as the template for taking on the South Americans: outwit them in midfield, push your wide players high, and be merciless when you have them on the run.
Play the Overs up to +100.
Brazil vs Japan projected lineup
Brasil (4-3-3): Alisson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel, Douglas Santos; Casemiro, Bruno Guimarães, Lucas Paquetá; Rayan, Matheus Cunha, Vinícius Júnior.
Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Itakura, H.Ito; Doan, Sano, Tanaka, Nakamura; Maeda, Kamada; Ueda
Brazil vs Japan injuries
Brazil: Raphinha LW (Out).
Japan: Endo CM (Out), Itakura CB (Doubtful), Kubo AM (Doubtful).
Brazil vs Japan weather
Dome.
Brazil vs Japan odds
| Brazil | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| -144 | Moneyline | +426 |
| +300 | Draw | +300 |
| Over 2.5 (+108) | Total | Under 2.5 (-113) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Brazil vs Japan
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Monday, June 29, 2026 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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