Sunday is here, which means plenty of afternoon baseball to watch.
I'm backing Bobby Witt Jr., Byron Buxton, and Shea Langeliers to go deep in my favorite MLB player props and home run predictions for Sunday, June 28.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Bobby Witt Jr. |
+344 |
 Byron Buxton |
+235 |
 Shea Langeliers |
+259 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +4143 |
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+344)
Bobby Witt Jr. is in an excellent spot to leave the yard this afternoon against Chicago White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay.
The Royals star has a 96.3% arsenal coverage against Kay's below-average pitch mix, and Batters-Box gives him an elite rating. When on the road with an elite rating, Witt has homered in nearly 30% of his games.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, he owns a .618 slugging percentage, a 13.7% barrel rate, and a 59% hard-hit rate. Kay has also been extremely vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing an elevation rate of nearly 82% over his last 30 faced.
At nearly +350 for one of the best hitters in baseball to leave the yard with these numbers backing him, I want it all!
I wouldn't play this much farther than the current number.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, ROYL
Home run pick: Byron Buxton (+235)
The resurgence of Byron Buxton has been beautiful to witness, and this matchup against Colorado Rockies righty Ryan Feltner only adds to it this afternoon.
The Twins veteran draws an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he leaves the yard 20.45% of the time and doubles 25% of the time if you needed an extra safety blanket.
Buxton also brings a nearly 75% arsenal coverage against Feltner, who has been allowing a ton of hard contact to right-handed hitters this season, giving up 44% hard hit and nearly a 12% barrel rate over his last 90 batters faced.
In addition to that, hitters are elevating the baseball 67.7% of the time, with an expected slugging percentage of .524 and a .389 expected wOBA.
With Buxton owning a .552 SLG, .885 OPS, while barreling the ball 16.7% of the time over his last 30 plate appearances against RHP, I love this spot for him.
Don't play this much lower than the current number.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, COLR
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+259)
Shea Langeliers draws Los Angeles lefty Sam Aldegheri, who has been getting tormented by right-handed hitters this season.
Aldegheri has allowed a ton of hard and elevated contact, and the underlying metrics are downright ugly. Over the last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced, he has surrendered a 72% elevation rate and a 16% barrel rate.
Those hitters have produced a .370 xBA, .659 xSLG, and .455 xwOBA during that span.
- Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
- HR picks: 65-225, +14.7 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Bobby Witt Jr. |
Bet Now +4143 |
| Byron Buxton |
|
| Shea Langeliers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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