Kansas City @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Waters in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Drew Waters pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

There has been a significant improvement in Michael Massey's launch angle from last season's 16.7° to 23.1° this season. In the last week, Michael Massey's 50% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.8%. Michael Massey has been unlucky this year, putting up a .229 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .071 discrepancy.

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #21 ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest RF fences today. Extreme groundball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Colton Gordon. Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Jonathan India will hold the platoon advantage over Colton Gordon in today's matchup. Jonathan India pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jonathan India has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last season's 87.2-mph figure.

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #21 ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Hitting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Yainer Diaz has a tough challenge today. In today's game, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (75th percentile). Yainer Diaz has exhibited weak plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 8th percentile with a 4.85 K/BB rate.

Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Vinnie Pasquantino has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 96.1-mph in the past week. There has been a significant improvement in Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle from last season's 14.4° to 18° this year. Vinnie Pasquantino has been unlucky this year, posting a .275 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .328 — a .053 discrepancy.

Minute Maid Park grades out as the #21 ballpark in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. Hitting from the same side that Michael Lorenzen throws from, Jeremy Pena will have a tough matchup in today's game. Jeremy Pena grades out in the 12th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (10.3% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Maikel Garcia will have the upper hand today. Extreme groundball bats like Maikel Garcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon. Maikel Garcia has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph figure.

Freddy Fermin will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.4°, Freddy Fermin has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 28.3° figure over the past 7 days.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. Mark Canha will hold the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Mark Canha's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 41.4% to 56.3%. When it comes to plate discipline, Mark Canha's skill is quite impressive, sporting a 1.93 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zachary Dezenzo in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Minute Maid Park has the shallowest left field dimensions in the majors. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Zachary Dezenzo will hold that advantage in today's game. Zachary Dezenzo has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 17.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the last week. In the last week, Zachary Dezenzo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph recently.

Jose Altuve's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. By putting up a .337 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Altuve has performed in the 94th percentile.

Jake Meyers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Meyers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Jake Meyers's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.7-mph in recent games. In terms of his batting average, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .235 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

Batters such as Victor Caratini with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Michael Lorenzen who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Victor Caratini has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 26.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.6°. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 15.4% to 21.4%. Checking in at the 77th percentile, Victor Caratini sits with a .334 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Isaac Paredes will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Isaac Paredes has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 22.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.5°. Isaac Paredes's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 39.7% to 49.5%.

Christian Walker is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Christian Walker's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph recently. Christian Walker's launch angle recently (24.2° over the past 7 days) is considerably better than his 13.2° seasonal angle.

Salvador Perez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Salvador Perez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon today. Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Salvador Perez's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 44.5% to 49.6%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.331) may lead us to conclude that Salvador Perez has been unlucky this year with his .274 actual wOBA.

Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Hunter Renfroe will have the upper hand today. Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Hunter Renfroe has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph EV. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Hunter Renfroe's true offensive ability to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .094 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .199 wOBA.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon's footspeed has increased this year. His 27.3 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.05 ft/sec now. Ranking in the 82nd percentile, Mauricio Dubon sits with a .269 batting average since the start of last season.