Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 11, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
LAA
@
CLE
Mon, May 11 • 6:10 PM ET
u7.5 (+104)
The Angels rank 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and own the worst walk rate in baseball, while Cleveland has been equally futile offensively, posting a 91 wRC+ over that same stretch.
Neither lineup has shown the consistency to threaten this number, and Los Angeles has gone Under the total in eight of their last 10 games.
CLE -1.5 (+130)
Joey Cantillo's changeup grades at the 88th percentile in run value, and his 95th-percentile extension makes him difficult to square up consistently.
Without a named starter, the Angels figure to deploy their bullpen tonight, and Los Angeles relievers have surrendered home runs at the highest rate in baseball over the last two weeks.
NYY
@
BAL
Mon, May 11 • 6:35 PM ET
NYY -1.5 (+102)
This looks like a get right spot for the Yankees and I’d play the run line to -120 with an obvious pitching advantage. Orioles hurler Brandon Young has a lot of room to grow. When he’s not inducing chase, he’s finding a lot of bats with a 42% hard-hit rate and slightly above average barrel rate. That’ll happen tonight because the Yankees enter this game with the fourth lowest chase rate in baseball
o8.5 (-122)
Young is a chase reliant pitcher that won’t get much chase. This will cause him to throw competitive pitches and his bottom 30 percentile hard-hit rate will be exposed against one of the best power lineups in baseball. That should do the heavy lifting for this total. I’d suspect the O’s can chip in some, too. Weathers' 94th percentile breaking ball is a genuine weapon but his 14th percentile barrel rate is a real liability against a Baltimore lineup that has enough pop. Play to 9.
TB
@
TOR
Mon, May 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Kazuma Okamoto is sporting a tidy 1.254 OPS over the last 10 days with five home runs and seven extra-base hits. One of those bombs came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Drew Rasmussen last Tuesday. The Tampa Bay starter owns one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, ranking 29th worst. Okamoto is squaring everything up right now, and with the Toronto Blue Jays’ second-fastest swing behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s doing real damage. The rookie owns the 17th-best SqUpCon% in baseball over the last two weeks and the fastest swing among the top 35 hitters in that metric. All of his over props are live today, and the familiarity angle works in his favor.
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
AZ
@
TEX
Mon, May 11 • 8:05 PM ET
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Corbin Carroll has historically hit Nathan Eovaldi well, going 5-for-13 against him with a double, triple, and homer. The Diamondbacks star is showing signs of heating up after homering Thursday and doubling Friday. Eovaldi has already surrendered 10 home runs this season, and Carroll’s speed plus extra-base upside makes this prop attractive tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Nathan Eovaldi is starting to find his groove on the mound again. The veteran right-hander has cashed the Over in strikeouts in back-to-back starts, piling up 15 Ks during that span, including eight against the Yankees. Arizona has been striking out frequently lately, and with Eovaldi allowing just one earned run across his last two outings, expect another sharp performance.
SEA
@
HOU
Mon, May 11 • 8:10 PM ET
u8.5 (-115)
George Kirby has conceded three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season, and given up two or less in five straight.
Meanwhile, Petere Lambert has allowed just two runs over his last three starts.
Both starters are limiting hard contact effectively, which should help them keep runs off the board.
HOU +1.5 (-135)
The Houston Astros rank third in wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitching, trailing only the Yankees and Braves in those categories.
They should provide good support for Peter Lambert, who has allowed just six runs through 22.1 innings of work this season.
Look for Houston to keep it close.
SF
@
LAD
Mon, May 11 • 10:10 PM ET
o9.5 (+100)
In addition to the Dodgers matching up well against San Francisco starter Trevor McDonald and his slider, L.A. hurler Roki Sasaki has been extremely shaky. He'll give up his share of runs against a Giants offense that is starting to show signs of life (15 runs over the last three games).
LAD (-177)
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
u8.0 (-120)
If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.
Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.
MIL (-110)
Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.
Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.
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