Cleveland @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-lowest humidity of the day at 37%. Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Ryan Mountcastle's swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 8.3% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°. Sporting a 4.18 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Ryan Mountcastle has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 14th percentile.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 3rd-deepest LF fences in Major League Baseball. Dry weather has a small but significant correlation with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-lowest humidity of the day at 37%. Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians. Jordan Westburg's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 93.6-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 83.6-mph in the past week's worth of games. As it relates to plate discipline, Jordan Westburg's skill is quite bad, putting up a 4.12 K/BB rate since the start of last season while grading out in in the 15th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Kwan in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Steven Kwan is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Steven Kwan will have an edge in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Steven Kwan's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph of late. As it relates to plate discipline, Steven Kwan's ability is quite strong, sporting a 1 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 99th percentile.

Angel Martinez pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Angel Martinez and his 16.5° launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls rank in 79th percentile, among the highest in the game since the start of last season. When it comes to plate discipline, Angel Martinez's talent is quite good, putting up a 2.13 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jose Ramirez's launch angle this year (27.2°) is quite a bit better than his 19.6° mark last season. Jose Ramirez has been lifting the ball well lately, compiling a 27.8° launch angle in the last 14 days.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums. Kyle Manzardo will hold the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's matchup. Kyle Manzardo has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.5% rate last year to 21.2% this year. In the last week's worth of games, Kyle Manzardo's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 21.2% up to 44.4%.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best batter in baseball. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Gunnar Henderson hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today. Gunnar Henderson will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Posting a 99-mph average exit velocity in the last 14 days, Gunnar Henderson has been in great form of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Gabriel Arias has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Extreme flyball bats like Gabriel Arias tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Charlie Morton. Over the last week, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.3-mph over the course of the season to 106.9-mph lately. Placing in the 75th percentile, Gabriel Arias sports a .312 BABIP since the start of last season.

Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage in today's matchup. Bo Naylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Bo Naylor has shown some good exit velocity benchmarks of late, averaging 97.6-mph on his flyballs over the past 14 days. Bo Naylor has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs in recent games, angling balls between 23° and 34° 38.5% of the time in the last two weeks. Bo Naylor's 20.2° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the league: 95th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Adley Rutschman ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will get to bat from his good side against Logan Allen today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Adley Rutschman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 105-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 96.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Tyler O'Neill is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game. Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Tyler O'Neill will have an edge in today's matchup. Tyler O'Neill will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Tyler O'Neill's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 103.1-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Nolan Jones is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Nolan Jones will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Nolan Jones's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.4-mph over the course of the season to 101.7-mph in recent games. Since the start of last season, Nolan Jones's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to assess power) ranks in the 85th percentile at 94.9 mph.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today. Carlos Santana has hit one of the hardest balls in MLB in the last week — 111.3-mph — which is a favorable measure of recent form and raw power. Posting a 1.56 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Carlos Santana has displayed impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 90th percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Gary Sanchez will have an advantage in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Gary Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gary Sanchez's 10.1% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 75th percentile since the start of last season. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Gary Sanchez has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.4 mph (a reliable standard to study power), checking in at the 93rd percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Ramon Laureano will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage today. Since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano's 12.2% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 86th percentile among his peers. Ramon Laureano has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 19.3° mark is among the highest in MLB since the start of last season (90th percentile). Posting a .338 BABIP since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano is ranked in the 90th percentile.

Ramon Urias will hold the platoon advantage against Logan Allen in today's matchup. Ramon Urias hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Ramon Urias will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cedric Mullins will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.4°, Cedric Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 34.3° mark over the last 7 days. Cedric Mullins's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 16.6% to 22.9%.

Batting from the opposite that Logan Allen throws from, Jorge Mateo will have an advantage today. Jorge Mateo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jorge Mateo will hold that advantage today. In terms of his batting average, Jorge Mateo has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .217 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .245. Jorge Mateo is notably athletic, ranking in the 99th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.9 ft/sec since the start of last season.

Lane Thomas has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.