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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Aug. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
+120 
|
o7.5 -112 
|
+1.5 -175 
|
|
4.42 |
-128
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +165
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League East.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 8-1 in Rodons last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Yankees are 6-1 in Rodons last 7 starts on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.38 |
+196 
|
o7.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -110 
|
|
5.06 |
-200
|
u8.0 -105
|
-1.5 +105
|
St. Louis
- Under is 7-0 in Leahys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 6-0-2 in Leahys last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts vs. National League East.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 home games.
- Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+164)
o0.5+164
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-104
|
o8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
5.00 |
-102
|
u9.0 -114
|
+1.5 -165
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Martinezs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Rays are 4-0 in Martinezs last 4 road starts.
- Under is 8-1 in Martinezs last 9 starts on grass.
Baltimore
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Bazs last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Orioles last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
o1.5+195
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.81 |
+147
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.20 |
-152
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +140
|
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 road games.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
Miami
- Under is 7-1 in Marlins last 8 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Junks last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-1 in Marlins last 6 home games.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez u1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
u1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.85 |
+165
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -127
|
|
4.53 |
-171
|
u9.0 -118
|
-1.5 +120
|
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 vs. American League West.
- Under is 7-1 in last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1 in last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 8-2 in last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
Houston
- Under is 5-0 in Astros last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 5-1 in Astros last 6 vs. American League West.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.66 |
-102
|
o8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
4.11 |
-101
|
u8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0 in Mets last 6 vs. American League Central.
- Mets are 6-0 in McLeans last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- White Sox are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
- White Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- Under is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.60 |
-104
|
o8.5 -110
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
4.58 |
+104
|
u8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +180
|
Detroit
- Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Valdezs last 6 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Kansas City
- Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 5-0-2 in Royals last 7 games a home underdog.
- Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
Top Projection
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+198)
o0.5+198
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+145
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.04 |
-150
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +140
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Kikuchis last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 8-1 in Angels last 9 vs. American League West.
Texas
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 home games.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.51 |
-160
|
o11.0 -120
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
5.18 |
+152
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 +100
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Guardians last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Suganos last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
Top Projection
Kyle Karros u1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+120)
u1.5+120
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.08 |
+195
|
o8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.99 |
-200
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +105
|
San Francisco
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+237)
o0.5+237
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.49 |
+250
|
o8.5 -105
|
+2.0 -126
|
|
5.28 |
-260
|
u8.5 +100
|
-2.0 -103
|
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 on grass.
- Under is 7-2 in Pirates last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-2 in Pirates last 8 vs. National League West.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+261
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
-105
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +155
|
|
3.96 |
+105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -164
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Millers last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.63 |
+130
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.98 |
-135
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +155
|
Minnesota
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Twins are 4-0 in Obers last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Twins last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Padres are 7-0 in Buehlers last 7 interleague starts.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.93 |
+120
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.66 |
-129
|
u12.0 -435
|
-1.5 +160 
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League West.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 on grass.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
JJ Bleday o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.43 |
+115
|
o7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.00 |
-122
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +175
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as an underdog.
Milwaukee
- Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
William Contreras u1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
u1.5-105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.57 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. American League East.
- Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.75 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.09 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Rays last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 vs. American League Central.
Detroit
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.08 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.44 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Colorado
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 overall.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 on grass.
- Under is 9-1 in Nationals last 10 during game 1 of a series.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.67 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.76 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Texas
- Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Rangers last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 14-2 in Rangers last 16 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.73 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
LA Angels
- Under is 7-0 in Angels last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Angels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.06 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Pittsburgh
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 6-2 in Pirates last 8 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 games as a favorite.
San Diego
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.31 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. Cubs
- Cubs are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 road games.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 games as a road favorite.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 7-1 in Diamondbacks last 8 games as a home favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.41 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.97 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Phillies last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Phillies last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Seattle
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Twins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 10-1 in Twins last 11 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 6-1-1 in last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 5-1-1 in last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 7-2 in last 9 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.63 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.69 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Burns' last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Burns' last 4 starts as a road favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 11-4 in Giants last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
TOR
@
NYY
Sun, Aug 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+510)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Vladdy's numbers in this specific matchup are impossible to ignore. At one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the big leagues, and with Vladdy's 1.105 SLG against Rodon, expect him to break out of his power drought today.
Moneyline
TOR (+120)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
The Toronto Blue Jays have seen Carlos Rodon a ton throughout his career: this lineup has 126 plate appearances under its belt and owns a .271 average alongside a .417 xSLG - that'll play for us today as the Jays go for their eighth straight series wins.
STL
@
PHI
Sun, Aug 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Kyle Leahy u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Kyle Leahy enters Sunday allowing over 45.5% hard contact this season, the most among today’s starters, per Batters-Box. He also draws a poorly rated matchup against a Phillies lineup featuring three elite rated hitters and one strongly rated bat. While Leahy’s strikeout rate has surged above 33% over his last three starts, Philadelphia’s strikeout rate has dropped to 12.2% over its last six games and below 16% over its last 12. The Phillies have maintained a contact rate above 81% over the last two weeks, with six hitters below a 17% strikeout rate against the last 30 right handers they’ve faced. The under feels promising. Take it down to -115.
Total Hits
Kyle Schwarber u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Citizens Bank Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which generally leads to worse offense.. In the past week's worth of games, Kyle Schwarber's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.2% down to 0%.. Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased lately; his 98.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 95.7-mph in the last 14 days.. Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Kyle Schwarber has been very fortunate given the .030 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.
TB
@
BAL
Sun, Aug 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Moneyline
TB (-108)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Tampa Bay enters with a red-hot offense, posting a 113 wRC+ over the last 14 days, pairing high contact with disciplined plate approaches. Baltimore's bullpen has been prone to high-damage contact despite strikeout flashes. Back the Rays' superior operational baseline at a coin-flip price.
Total Hits
Richie Palacios u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Richie Palacios in the 12th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Richie Palacios is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. When starting against a righty hurler this year, Richie Palacios has been pulled from the game early 27% of the time.. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Richie Palacios in today's matchup.. Over the last two weeks, Richie Palacios's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 88.4 mph to 79.7 mph.
WAS
@
MIA
Sun, Aug 23 • 1:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Daylen Lile o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Daylen Lile is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Daylen Lile will hold the platoon advantage against Janson Junk in today's matchup.. Daylen Lile's launch angle this season (18.5°) is quite a bit better than his 15.2° mark last season.. Daylen Lile's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, going from 19.9% on the season to 39.3% over the last 14 days.
Strikeouts Thrown
Janson Junk o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 4.21
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects LoanDepot Park as the 10th-best venue in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Janson Junk will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
ATH
@
HOU
Sun, Aug 23 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+344)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Yordan Alvarez enters today’s matchup with one of the highest-rated matchups on the slate over at Batters-Box, covering every pitch in Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins’ pitch mix. Alvarez has recorded four balls hit over 100 MPH since August 18 and owns a .467 SLG, .200 ISO, and 52% hard-hit rate over his last 10 games. Perkins has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing a 57% hard-hit rate, 19% barrel rate, and 3.18 HR/9 over his last 30 faced. Alvarez has also homered in over 33% of his 24 elite home ratings this season. Near +350, the price is too good to pass up.
Total Hits
Jose Altuve u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Brady Basso throws from, Jose Altuve will have a tough matchup today.. Jose Altuve has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks.. Jose Altuve's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 77.9-mph over the past 14 days.. Jose Altuve's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 14.6% to 11.6%.
NYM
@
CHW
Sun, Aug 23 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami o0.5 Total Hits (-150)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami remains one of the most lethal bats in baseball, yet his hit prop continues to be priced surprisingly low. He gets an elite matchup this afternoon against Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, marking his 28th elite rating at home this season. In his previous 27, Murakami recorded a hit 70.37% of the time. Overall, he has recorded a hit in nearly 71% of 55 elite ratings this season, while hitting a home run at a near 35% clip. He also sports a .278 ISO over his last 10 games, with a 52.4% hard-hit rate and nearly 20% barrel rate. McLean has struggled against lefties, allowing 2.13 HR/9 and a 47.6% hard-hit rate over his last 60 faced. Murakami covers almost 87% of McLean's arsenal, making the hit prop worth the juice, while his double and home run offer plus-money upside.
Total
u8.5 (-116)
Ethan Diamandas
Betting Analyst
DET
@
KC
Sun, Aug 23 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Kevin McGonigle may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Kansas City Royals only has 1 same-handed RP.. Bats such as Kevin McGonigle with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Daniel Lynch who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. Kevin McGonigle has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 6.8% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last week.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-best venue in the majors for run-scoring.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to more offense.. Kevin McGonigle may have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Kansas City Royals only has 1 same-handed RP.
LAA
@
TEX
Sun, Aug 23 • 2:35 PM ET
Total Bases
Elias Diaz u1.5 Total Bases (-300)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Elias Diaz is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. Elias Diaz has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 18% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound this year.. The 7th-deepest CF fences in MLB are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Corey Seager faces a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Corey Seager hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 7th-deepest CF fences today.. Over the past 7 days, Corey Seager's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.1% down to 10%.. Corey Seager's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 44.1% on the season to 38.7% in the past 14 days.
CLE
@
COL
Sun, Aug 23 • 3:10 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Tomoyuki Sugano o3.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-120)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
The Cleveland Guardians draw one of the highest-rated lineups on Sunday, featuring six elite-rated bats and two more with strong ratings, according to Batters-Box. That is bad news for Colorado Rockies right-hander Sugano, who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters. At home this season, he owns a 6.00 xERA while allowing a 13.37% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate. Lefties have been especially productive against him, posting a .411 xwOBA. With Cleveland carrying only one true right-handed hitter, the matchup sets up well for the Guardians to attack Sugano's biggest weakness. The over 3.5 earned runs is worth a look.
Total RBIs
Travis Bazzana o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Coors Field profiles as the #1 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to better offense.. The weather report calls for temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Travis Bazzana will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano today.. Over the past week, Travis Bazzana's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.7% up to 15.4%.
SF
@
BOS
Sun, Aug 23 • 3:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Wilyer Abreu is my favorite home run candidate in this game. He continues to make powerful contact, leading the Red Sox with a 55% hard hit rate this month.
He is hammering the baseball and it’s leading to results. He’s hit .319 with a .362 ISO and 1.111 OPS, all of which are tops on the team among everyday players.
Bet to +405.
Total
u8.5 (-120)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The San Francisco Giants are loaded with players who own painful results against lefties. Bryce Eldridge is the only projected starter with an xwOBA over .300, which is almost shocking.
San Francisco is going with a bullpen approach, and their relievers have combined to allow 0.48 home runs per nine innings in August.
Their ability to keep the ball in the park will help limit damage, making the Under a buy to -130.
PIT
@
LAD
Sun, Aug 23 • 4:10 PM ET
There are pristine weather conditions for the offense: temps in the mid-90s and winds of 6-10 mph blowing out to right-center. Carmen Mlodzinki's second-percentile xBA and second-percentile hard-hit rate are an issue as L.A. has a league-best .264 xBA against RHP.
Pittsburgh can't hit lefties, and that's a death sentence against Blake Snell. The Pirates have the fourth-highest SwStr% (11.9%) and the third-highest K% (28.3%) against LHP this month, so Snell (16.7% SwStr%) will work his magic. L.A.'s offense will hand a crooked number against Carmen Mlodzinski (6.95 ERA and 1.77 WHIP since the All-Star Break).
CHC
@
SEA
Sun, Aug 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Moneyline
CHC (+101)
Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
The Cubs are mashing the ball, posting a 116 wRC+ and .218 ISO over the last 14 days. Seattle's bullpen has melted down recently, posting a 7.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Shota Imanaga gives Chicago the stability needed to keep the Mariners' lineup in check and exploit Seattle's pitching struggles at plus-money.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 13th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Julio Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.. In the last 7 days, Julio Rodriguez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 23.1%.
MIN
@
SD
Sun, Aug 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Luke Keaschall o1.5 Total Bases (+157)
Projection 1.6
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Keaschall in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Luke Keaschall is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Luke Keaschall's launch angle this season (17.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 10.2° figure last season.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.5°, Luke Keaschall has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 26.1° figure over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Josh Bell o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Josh Bell will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Walker Buehler.. Josh Bell's launch angle this year (14.1°) is considerably higher than his 10.7° figure last season.
CIN
@
AZ
Sun, Aug 23 • 4:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Projection 1.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Sal Stewart is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 4th-best park in the majors for run-scoring.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league parks, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Bratt throws from, Sal Stewart will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Tyler Stephenson o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.63
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Tyler Stephenson will hold the platoon advantage over Mitch Bratt in today's game.. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.3°, Tyler Stephenson has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 31° mark over the past 7 days.
ATL
@
MIL
Sun, Aug 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+425)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Shane Drohan is more susceptible to giving up homers when facing righties, and Ronald Acuna Jr. profiles well against his mix.
Isolating Drohan’s three most-used pitches vs. right-handed bats, Acuna Jr. owns a .360 ISO, .378 wOBA, and 23.1% barrel rate the past 25 games.
Bet to +410.
Total
o7.5 (-105)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Atlanta Braves sit ninth in ISO against lefties, and rank in the 96th percentile with a .430 xSLG over their last 30 games.
Tyler Mahle owns a 6.55 ERA away from Oracle, and has given up at least two runs in nine of 11 road starts.
The Milwaukee Brewers should also score here, making the 7.5 total a buy up to -125.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
Total
o8.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: 2 months ago
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Moneyline
SF (+124)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
Our experts and prediction models are hard at work analyzing the data. Check back shortly for today's picks, or explore our Computer Picks for inspiration.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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