Philadelphia @ Seattle Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Josh Rojas will hold that advantage today. Over the last week, Josh Rojas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 18.2%. Josh Rojas's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 16.7% to 19.8%.

Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Austin Hays's launch angle in recent games (32.2° in the past 7 days) is quite a bit higher than his 13.2° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 3rd-best batter in the game when it comes to his BABIP skill. Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game. Brandon Marsh will have the handedness advantage against Bryce Miller today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Marsh stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Trea Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Trea Turner has posted a .370 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Jorge Polanco will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, J.T. Realmuto has suffered from bad luck this year. His .307 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328. With a .266 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , J.T. Realmuto grades out in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Randy Arozarena will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Orion Kerkering in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Compared to last season, Nick Castellanos has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15% to 19.1% this season. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Nick Castellanos's 64.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. Bryson Stott has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Alec Bohm is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Seattle Mariners. Alec Bohm has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.6-mph in the past two weeks.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's matchup. Bryce Harper is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. Bryce Harper has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Mitch Haniger will hold the platoon advantage against Orion Kerkering today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Mitch Haniger will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Mitch Haniger has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.3-mph EV.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Dylan Moore ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Orion Kerkering throws from, Dylan Moore will have an advantage in today's game. Dylan Moore pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Dylan Moore will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Batting from the same side that Orion Kerkering throws from, Luke Raley meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Luke Raley will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Luke Raley has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 106.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal mark of 95.3-mph.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 20th-best batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryce Miller in today's game. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Justin Turner is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Long-balls are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league stadiums. Justin Turner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Orion Kerkering today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Justin Turner will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Mitch Garver will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Orion Kerkering in today's game. Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Mitch Garver will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Mitch Garver has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 89.3-mph mark.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his good side against Orion Kerkering in today's matchup. Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of the day).

Victor Robles is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Victor Robles will have the handedness advantage against Orion Kerkering today. Victor Robles pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Victor Robles will hold that advantage today.