Photo By - Reuters Connect. Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles.
Let's try to get the home run train moving this week by picking on some struggling pitchers in settings with good-to-great hitting conditions and spots to target MLB player props.
Ryne Nelson and Yusei Kikuchi are solid pitching targets to find some dingers today, as they're struggling and their visiting parks are looking hitter-friendly. There are plenty of names on the Orioles and Yankees to target on Monday for four-baggers.
These are my favorite home run props for Monday, April 13.
The Baltimore Orioles draw one of the better hitting environments on the board today, ranking as the third-best park for home runs, and get a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson.
The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander carries one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball, and when paired with a 42% hard-hit rate, it’s a strong setup for power. He’s already allowed multiple home runs in two of his three starts this season.
Gunnar Henderson is off to a strong power start with six home runs, among the league leaders. While the average is down, the quality of contact is there, with nine of his 15 hits going for extra bases.
He is riding a six-game hitting streak, which also includes four longballs. Covers projections, powered by THE BAT, price this home run closer to +380.
There’s also some matchup history, with Henderson going 2-for-4 with a home run off Nelson, adding another layer of confidence to the play.
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MASN, Dbacks.TV
Jose Caballero (+1040)
I'm taking a big shot at the Yankees' shortstop at the highest price I've hit in this article for a homer.
Jose Caballero might not have much time left with the club, as Anthony Volpe is beginning his rehab assignment tomorrow. Still, he has a great opportunity to showcase tonight at Yankee Stadium with 16-mph winds blowing out and a matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi.
The Angels' starter gives up a lot of flyballs, and only five other starters have given up hard-hit balls at a higher rate than the lefty at 48%. He has avoided giving up a lot of home runs this season (just one allowed), but the dingers are coming, and Caballero has already taken him deep in his career.
He also handles lefties better than righties. It's a giant price with a lot of checkmarks.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, FanDuel Sports Network West
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 2-22, -11.6 units
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Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2019, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup.
Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.
Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds.
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Gunnar Henderson
Jose Caballero
