Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
PHI
@
CHC
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
CHC (-120)
The Phillies have scored two runs or fewer in five consecutive games and it’s difficult to envision things getting much better tonight. Philadelphia’s offense has been putrid against left-handed pitching, sporting a .260 wOBA (28th) and .549 OPS (29th). They now have to deal with Shota Imanaga, who has been one of the league’s best starters thus far. While I believe Jesus Luzardo to be much better than his counting stats indicate, this is a tough matchup to truly get back on track. The Cubs rank third in both wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitchers, and recorded 12 hits the last time they faced Luzardo.
u8.5 (-105)
Jesus Luzardo is sporting a painful 7.94 ERA despite striking out six batters for every walk issued and allowing hard contact just 28.6% of the time. He has a 1.93 xFIP and 2.45 SIERA, excellent numbers that suggest much better days are ahead. Shota Imanaga has been lights out to date with sparkling metrics in many categories (2.45 ERA, 2.49 xFIP, 12.68 K/9). With strong bullpens behind these two starters – both teams rank Top-10 in xFIP this month – it’s difficult to envision either team putting up a ceiling performance at the plate.
BAL
@
KC
Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
YRFI/NRFI (No: +102)
The Orioles and Royals respectively rank third and last in percentage of games scoring a run in the first inning, so even with the wind forecasted to be howling out at Kauffman Stadium, I’m expecting starters Shane Baz and Kris Bubic to post zeros in the opening frame. Baltimore hasn’t scored an opening-inning run on the road all season, and Kansas City is the lowest-scoring team in the opening frame for the year and second-lowest scoring team overall, too.
Jeremiah Jackson o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
PIT
@
TEX
Tue, Apr 21 • 8:05 PM ET
SD
@
COL
Tue, Apr 21 • 8:40 PM ET
Brenton Doyle o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Brenton Doyle might hit near the bottom of the Colorado Rockies lineup, but his +700 home run price at home vs. Randy Vásquez is a great number that I’d play down to +600. Coors Field is always a strong backdrop, but it stands out even more on this slate and projects as the top hitting environment on Tuesday. The snow is gone, temperatures are up to 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out to left field — all pointing to a favorable home run setup. Vásquez can allow solid contact and ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball in Blast Contact% through the first month. Doyle may only have one homer so far, but it came against Vásquez two weeks ago, and he also brings one of the fastest swings in the Colorado lineup.
TOR
@
LAA
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:38 PM ET
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night. Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, batting .354, the second-highest average in the majors. Vladdy is also currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, averaging 2.54 bases per contest in that stretch.
CHW
@
AZ
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
ATH
@
SEA
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
LAD
@
SF
Tue, Apr 21 • 9:45 PM ET
LAD FirstFiveInnings -0.5 (-115)
The Dodgers have a clear early edge, leading MLB in runs scored in innings 1–5 on the road, while the Giants rank dead last at home. Los Angeles is also in better form, leading the league in OPS over the past week compared to San Francisco at 18th. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been dominant, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts and has owned Giants hitters, holding them to a combined .485 OPS in 79 at-bats, while Landen Roupp posted a 8.22 ERA in two appearances vs LA last season.
With temperatures in the mid-50s, it should be a pitcher-friendly environment. Yamamoto and Roupp have been two of the better starting pitchers in the league and should thrive.
There are two quality bullpens behind them as well — L.A. ranks seventh in SIERA in relief (3.45) while San Francisco (3.55) isn’t far behind at ninth and has all of its top options well-rested and at the ready.
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