MLB Picks

Adley Rutschman is having a major bounce-back season, proving that he's not Matt Wieters 2.0. Against a pitch-to-contact hurler like Emerson Hancock, I like the value at getting Rutschman close to +600, compared to teammate Pete Alonso (+391).

The Tampa Bay Rays will use Ian Seymour as an opener against the Boston Red Sox on Monday, but I think the game will be won in the middle innings when they eventually turn the ball over to Mason Englert. Englert features a sweeping curveball and slider, both of which have been plus pitches this season. Those pitches could create real problems for an aggressive, pull-heavy Red Sox lineup because of the east-west movement they generate. On the offensive side, Tampa Bay’s approach is always the same: work counts, spoil good pitches, and drive up a starter’s pitch count. If the Rays can force Connelly Early out of the game early and get into Boston’s middle relief, I like the edge Tampa Bay can establish during those innings. I price the Rays closer to -125 favorites in this matchup, which is why I’m hitting the button.

The Yankees have scored four runs or less in four of five games without Aaron Judge.

The Guardians rank 29th in average and 26th in OPS vs. righties at home.

Don't expect fireworks in Cleveland. Playable to -130.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contact metrics are on the rise, even if the results haven't been. His hard-hit rate over his last 40 at-bats is 58.8%, up from his season average of 44.6%. 

Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) in the league.. The weather forecast projects the 3rd-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for batters.

It hasn’t always been pretty, but Reds starter Andrew Aboott has allowed three runs of fewer in each of his past seven starts for a surface 2.25 ERA that hides a 5.07 xFIP. I’m confident Abbott can continue his strong stretch despite the poor underlying metrics because thePadres rank last in baseball in wOBA against lefties, and they also rank last in the overall metric during their active 4-13 skid while averaging just 2.6 runs per game. Plus, there’s nothing intimidating about San Diego righty Walker Buehler’s well-above average 4.63 xERA.

Trusting the Giants offense is a precarious decision, but Miles Mikolas is the sort of pitcher you fade every chance you get. The veteran right-hander barely qualifies as a warm body for the Nationals, as evidenced by his fourth-percentile whiff rate, seventh-percentile strikeout rate, and ninth-percentile barrel rate. He's not fooling anyone, as his 6.39 ERA shows. On the flip side, no team has scored more runs than the Nationals, and James Wood and CJ Abrams may be champing at the bit to step in against Logan Webb, a sometimes great starter who has struggled mightily in 2026. We can clear this total even if one of these starters has a halfway decent outing. 

Las Vegas Ballpark boasts the most hitter-friendly conditions on the slate by a country mile, and home run prices are suppressed because of it. Still, this is a good number in this situation for William Contreras against a southpaw in Jeffrey Springs, who has been homer-prone in 2026.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.