Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
TOR
@
DET
Sat, May 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total Singles (-130)
Despite being mired in a lengthy skid at the plate, Vladdy still ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA, and should see some positive regression soon once he finally gets going. Today could be that day, especially with Casey Mize on the mound for the Tigers. Guerrero Jr. is 3-for-3 against Mize in his career with two of the three hits being singles. I’m betting his singles market specifically because that’s the sweet spot for value as 80% of his hits this year have been one-baggers.
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
KC
@
STL
Sat, May 16 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
COL
Sat, May 16 • 3:10 PM ET
BAL
@
WAS
Sat, May 16 • 4:05 PM ET
PHI
@
PIT
Sat, May 16 • 4:05 PM ET
Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total Home Runs (+266)
Kyle Schwarber is impossible to ignore right now after crushing three home runs across his last two games. The Phillies slugger has gone deep in seven of his previous eight appearances and already leads MLB with 20 homers. Schwarber continues to mash on the road as well, making him a dangerous threat again against the Pirates pitching staff.
u8.5 (-125)
MIA
@
TB
Sat, May 16 • 4:10 PM ET
CIN
@
CLE
Sat, May 16 • 6:10 PM ET
Matt McLain o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Matt McLain enters Saturday swinging a hot bat after homering in back-to-back games for the Reds. The second baseman draws a favorable matchup against Gavin Williams, who has surrendered eight home runs through nine starts and struggled badly lately. At nearly 10/1 odds, McLain offers excellent value to stay hot against Cleveland tonight.
MIL
@
MIN
Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
CHC
@
CHW
Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
TEX
@
HOU
Sat, May 16 • 7:10 PM ET
BOS
@
ATL
Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
ATL (-140)
NYY
@
NYM
Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
u8.5 (-115)
I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees. I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase. I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there.
NYY -1.5 (+125)
I was at least slightly surprised at this price and would play it down to +110. Perhaps there are still lingering concerns about New York Yankees hurler Carlos Rodon after a pretty rough season debut, where he allowed three earned runs in just 4 innings pitched. But that was just that: a season debut. This matchup against the New York Mets is strong.
SD
@
SEA
Sat, May 16 • 7:15 PM ET
LAD
@
LAA
Sat, May 16 • 9:38 PM ET
The Dodgers are in a bind after Blake Snell was scratched yesterday, forcing Dave Roberts to use eight bullpen arms. Both Justin Wrobleski (4.08 xERA, 2.42 actual ERA) and Jose Soriano (3.75 xERA, 1.66 actual ERA) are due for regression with the wind blowing out at 8-9 mph.
SF
@
ATH
Sat, May 16 • 9:40 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
u8.0 (-120)
If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.
Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.
MIL (-110)
Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.
Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.
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