MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Richie Palacios logo
Richie Palacios u0.5 Total Hits (-110)
Projection 0.48
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Richie Palacios in the 15th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Richie Palacios is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #4 venue in the league for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Richie Palacios has been lucky since the start of last season. His .377 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .301.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart logo
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Stewart as the 20th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his batting average talent.. Sal Stewart is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 7° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Sal Stewart will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Sal Stewart has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kyle Stowers logo
Kyle Stowers u0.5 Total Hits (+186)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 4th-deepest RF fences among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.272) provides evidence that Kyle Stowers has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .291 actual batting average.
Total Hits
Jakob Marsee logo
Jakob Marsee u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 4th-deepest RF fences among all stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. Jakob Marsee has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8.1% rate last season has fallen to 1.7% this year.. Jakob Marsee's 90.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Tue, Apr 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jahmai Jones logo
Jahmai Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
Projection 0.63
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The 2nd-deepest CF fences in MLB are found in Comerica Park.. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Total Hits
Matt Vierling logo
Matt Vierling u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 41 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.. With a .268 wOBA in the last 7 days, Matt Vierling has been struggling at the plate.
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New York Yankees logo NYY @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ben Rice logo Ben Rice o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

Ben Rice has picked up at least two total bases in seven of his last 10 games. 

Total Hits
Aaron Judge logo
Aaron Judge u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.86
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly linked with cold weather, and the weather report for this contest calls for the lowest temperature of all games today at 45°.. Out of all the teams in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Aaron Judge in today's matchup.. Aaron Judge's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 44.4% to 37.3%.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Washington Nationals logo WAS Tue, Apr 21 • 6:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jorge Mateo logo
Jorge Mateo u0.5 Total Hits (+119)
Projection 0.53
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 15th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Jorge Mateo is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst park in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Total Hits
Jonah Heim logo
Jonah Heim u0.5 Total Hits (+144)
Projection 0.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonah Heim in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Jonah Heim is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst park in the game for right-handed batting average.. Nationals Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 3rd-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
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Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ New York Mets logo NYM Tue, Apr 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Matt Wallner logo
Matt Wallner o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
Projection 1.17
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the majors's 14th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Matt Wallner will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases
MJ Melendez logo
MJ Melendez u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects MJ Melendez in the 9th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. The #2 field in MLB for suppressing offensive stats to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-coldest weather on the schedule today at 47°.. In notching a .237 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, MJ Melendez has performed in the 14th percentile for offensive skills.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber u0.5 Total Hits (+130)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 23 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 8th-worst venue in the majors for lefty batting average.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.6-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Shota Imanaga will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Schwarber in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Total Hits
Carson Kelly logo
Carson Kelly u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #8 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.6-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Carson Kelly's footspeed has decreased this year. His 25.97 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.27 ft/sec now.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Apr 21 • 7:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jeremiah Jackson logo Jeremiah Jackson o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

Jeremiah Jackson has ripped lefty pitching this season, going 7-for-14 (.500) with a HR and five RBI, with a .714 slugging percentage.

Total Hits
Jeremiah Jackson logo
Jeremiah Jackson u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jeremiah Jackson has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's deepest RF fences today.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams today.. Jeremiah Jackson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Jeremiah Jackson's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 90.8-mph EV last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.. Jeremiah Jackson's launch angle this season (4°) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.7° figure last year.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Apr 21 • 9:38 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+790)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday. His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, it often leaves the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year. Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%. There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.

Total Home Runs
Mike Trout logo Mike Trout o0.5 Total Home Runs (+350)
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

I don’t dip too much into the mid-300s, but getting the most probable Los Angeles Angels home-run hitter 75 points better than fair is tough to pass up against Patrick Corbin. Mike Trout is priced at +350 to go deep for an eighth time this year, which is stronger than most of his recent closing numbers. The matchup sets up well, as Corbin owns one of the highest Blast Contact% rates among starters. Corbin’s leash has been extended and could push 90+ pitches, but even if he exits early, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen may be without multiple high-leverage arms. Right-handed hitters are batting around .300 against Corbin since 2024, and the setting helps with 10 mph winds blowing out to center.

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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami u1.5 Total Bases (-179)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.. Today, Munetaka Murakami is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (93rd percentile).. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Munetaka Murakami in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Munetaka Murakami's true offensive talent to be a .342, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .042 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .384 wOBA.
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas logo
Miguel Vargas u1.5 Total Bases (-158)
Projection 0.97
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In Major League Baseball, the 10th-highest fence height (on average) are at Chase Field.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Miguel Vargas meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Miguel Vargas today.. From last season to this one, Miguel Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 42.3% to 32.8%.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Apr 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Lawrence Butler logo
Lawrence Butler o1.5 Total Bases (+240)
Projection 1.41
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lawrence Butler in the 80th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Given Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Lawrence Butler will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team today.
Total Bases
Nick Kurtz logo
Nick Kurtz o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Nick Kurtz projects as the 10th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Nick Kurtz will have the handedness advantage against Luis Castillo today... and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.. Nick Kurtz has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Tue, Apr 21 • 9:45 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Strikeouts Thrown
Yoshinobu Yamamoto logo Yoshinobu Yamamoto o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-104)
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
Eric Rosales image
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has struck out at least six Giants in four of his five career starts.

Total Bases
Willy Adames logo
Willy Adames o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Willy Adames is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. Oracle Park projects as the #4 stadium in the majors for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Extreme flyball batters like Willy Adames tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.
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