MLB Picks

Despite being mired in a lengthy skid at the plate, Vladdy still ranks in the 96th percentile in xBA, and should see some positive regression soon once he finally gets going. Today could be that day, especially with Casey Mize on the mound for the Tigers. Guerrero Jr. is 3-for-3 against Mize in his career with two of the three hits being singles. I’m betting his singles market specifically because that’s the sweet spot for value as 80% of his hits this year have been one-baggers. 

Bobby Witt Jr. is seeing the baseball extremely well right now, batting over .360 across the last week while consistently producing multi-hit performances. The Royals star owns a .305 average on the road and thrives in day games. With his recent form and ability to spark Kansas City’s offense, Witt Jr. offers intriguing plus-money value.

Kyle Schwarber is impossible to ignore right now after crushing three home runs across his last two games. The Phillies slugger has gone deep in seven of his previous eight appearances and already leads MLB with 20 homers. Schwarber continues to mash on the road as well, making him a dangerous threat again against the Pirates pitching staff.

Matt McLain enters Saturday swinging a hot bat after homering in back-to-back games for the Reds. The second baseman draws a favorable matchup against Gavin Williams, who has surrendered eight home runs through nine starts and struggled badly lately. At nearly 10/1 odds, McLain offers excellent value to stay hot against Cleveland tonight.

Taillon is flirting with a 4.0 ERA despite a .214 BABIP, and 85.5 LOB%. He has benefited from great batted ball luck, stranded baserunners at an unsustainably high rate, and is still giving up plenty of runs.

Martin is a very good pitcher but he has also gotten lucky. His xERA is 3.91, more than two full runs higher than his actual ERA of 1.62.

Regression could come for both against strong offenses.

Jacob deGrom continues to look like one of baseball’s most dominant arms, posting a 2.62 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 44.2 innings. The Rangers ace has a strong history against Houston, limiting Astros hitters to a .153 average with 23 strikeouts. deGrom’s elite swing-and-miss stuff gives him solid value to clear this number.

The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be difficult for both teams in this matchup. Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.

I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees.

I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase. I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there.

Randy Arozarena has been scorching hot in May, collecting hits at an impressive rate while cashing the Over in total bases in five consecutive games. The Mariners slugger faces Walker Buehler, who owns a rough 10.13 road ERA this season. Given Arozarena’s current form, he’s well-positioned to continue producing extra-base damage tonight.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.