MLB Picks

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 26 of 32 starts since the beginning of last year, so I'm anticipating the lefty doing the heavy lifting to keep this total Under the number this afternoon.

Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen’s ERA and xFIP climbed in each of the past three seasons ahead of him allowing four runs on five hits and a pair of walks through four frames on Opening Day, so I’m anticipating a long season ahead for the veteran righty. It’s just the opposite for Detroit ace Tarik Skubal, with the star southpaw ranking second among qualified starters in ERA and xFIP since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. The Arizona offense is also off to a ho-hum start with a 23rd-ranked xwOBA.

These have been two of the worst lineups in baseball to start the season. The Giants rank 26th in OPS and wRC+ while the Padres are dead last in both categories.

Nick Pivetta dominated this lineup, limiting current Giants hitters to a .202 expected batting average and a .388 expected slugging with a 31.1% strikeout rate.

The pitching matchup between Schlittler and George Kirby is nothing short of excellent. 

Schlittler impressed as a rookie and seems poised for a big sophomore campaign, holding a struggling Giants offense to just one baserunner in his season opening start.

While more can be expected from the Mariners, it shouldn’t be a field day for their offense.

Meanwhile, Kirby pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians in his 2026 debut. That’s par for the course – he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 home games.

The Mariners are hitting .205 to start the year but don’t let that fool you: there is a good offense in there. They rank 15th in wOBA, 11th in line drive percentage, 10th in wRC+, and 9th in walk rate. There are some good signs beneath the surface.

The weather in Kansas City might end up being the biggest obstacle for this bet, as it’s expected to be rainy throughout the night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the game gets postponed. That said, there’s no way I’m passing up a -113 price on Joe Ryan against the Royals—even with the risk of a void. I make the Twins closer to -147 favorites in this spot. Ryan has absolutely dominated the Royals in his career, which gives Minnesota a clear edge on the mound. Kansas City is starting left-hander Noah Cameron, and one thing that stands out is Royce Lewis hitting out of the eight spot in the Twins lineup. As a right-handed bat, he can help turn the lineup over and create additional pressure on Cameron by setting the table for the top of the order. With the Royals also missing pieces at the back end of their bullpen, including Carlos Estévez, I’ll back the Twins on the moneyline.

These teams have combined for a 7-1 record to the Under to start the season. Both lineups have struggled, ranking 23rd and 28th in OPS. Joe Ryan has consistently handled Royals hitters, holding them to a .582 OPS over 110 combined at-bats. On the other side, Noah Cameron faces a Twins lineup posting a brutal .458 OPS vs lefties and dominated them last year with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings of work.

Even with Chase DeLauter's hot start, the Guardians rank 27th in both OPS and wRC+. While the Dodgers are off to a slow start offensively and have scored four runs or fewer in three straight games.

The Guardians are striking out a lot. The third-highest strikeout-rate in this young season, in fact and now face Yamamoto, who ranked in the 89th percentile in K-rate last season.