MLB Picks

Ben Brown has been very sharp for the Chicago Cubs since moving into a starting role. It’s still a small sample size, but he’s sporting an 11.08 K/9 and a 2.33 xERA through his first three starts. Brown is a power pitcher, and I think he draws a very favorable matchup against the potential lineup we could see from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Hitters six through nine in the Pirates lineup could all bat right-handed, which may create problems for Pittsburgh when trying to turn the lineup over and generate consistent pressure against Brown. His knuckle curve should be an absolute weapon against the bottom of the order, as it will be breaking away from nearly every hitter he faces. That should help Brown generate some low-stress innings and keep his pitch count under control. I price the Cubs closer to -150 favorites in this spot.

There is only one bat with a better slugging percentage over the last seven days than Yandy Díaz, who also ranks 22nd in BlastContact% over that stretch. He looks fine after missing a game following a pitch off the hand last Thursday and delivered a two-hit day yesterday, including a double vs. the Yankees. He has gone deep three times over his last seven games with four doubles and just two strikeouts against three walks. There is a slight chance of rain in Baltimore, but conditions still feature 75-degree temperatures and light winds blowing out. A strong angle here is that Díaz just saw Kyle Bradish in his last start and tagged him for a home run and a double in three plate appearances. Both balls were crushed, with the homer leaving the bat at 111.3 mph and the double at 113.7 mph. That familiarity edge is firmly in Díaz’s favor today. Díaz has also seen Bradish 22 times in his career and is hitting .455 off him overall.

Misiorowski rarely gives up runs, and the inconsistent Cardinals lineup has scored just eight runs combined in three recent losses. While Liberatore has struggled lately, he’s also had solid road outings recently. Milwaukee’s offense cooled off against the Dodgers, making a lower-scoring game likely.

Why are the Minnesota Twins road favorites today with Zebby Matthews on the mound? His run of good fortune feels due to snap with a .227 BABIP while stranding 93% of his runners. He was getting tagged in Triple-A before the call-up and simply doesn’t profile as a good pitcher. He also threw 100 pitches in his last outing and hands things over to a bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA on the season and could be without Taylor Rogers after back-to-back appearances. Meanwhile, Anthony Kay is quietly putting together a strong season with two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of his 10 starts. The White Sox still feel undervalued by the market, and THE BAT has this fair price sitting at -120.

I haven't been thrilled about backing Yankees arm Will Warren so far this year, but his 86th percentile K rate should play well here. It's a Royals lineup with limited barrel threats, which means Warren should generate plenty of swing-and-miss. While I like the Yankees to get after Wacha, the story of the season so far for New York is at play here: There's still a good amount of easy outs at the bottom of the New York lineup. I made the total 8.7; this is not a huge edge but playable nonetheless.

Jake Burger is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball of late and gets a strong matchup vs. a struggling starter in Tatsuya Imai and a Houston bullpen that has allowed the most home runs in baseball with 37 across 217 innings of work. Burger ranks 20th in slugging over the last two weeks while also posting one of the best BlastContact rates in baseball over that same span. He draws an indoor setting vs. a starter in Imai, who is still adjusting to North American baseball, carries one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, and has already allowed four home runs in just over 17 innings. He has shown little ability to work deep into games, and the bullpen behind him offers limited relief, especially if Houston is forced into its secondary arms. Burger has homered in four straight series and just saw the Astros 10 days ago. I have this fair price around +400, giving clear room on this home run prop.

It may look like a lot of juice to lay with the Toronto Blue Jays at -150 on the moneyline, but I actually think this number should be even shorter. I price the Blue Jays closer to -180 favorites against the Miami Marlins in this matchup. Trey Yesavage gets the ball for Toronto, and he’s a difficult matchup for any lineup seeing his release point for the first time. That challenge becomes even greater against a Marlins lineup loaded with young hitters. Miami may try to counter by stacking six left-handed bats, but that should simply lead to Yesavage leaning more heavily on his splitter Monday night. Those young hitters could have a very difficult time laying off pitches and avoiding chase situations against him.

Los Angeles has crushed right-handed pitching like Rockies starter Tanner Gordon at home over its last 12 games, owning a 113 wRC+, .730 OPS, and .328 wOBA, while also carrying a 13.7% walk rate.

Overall, the Dodgers rank second in first-five scoring, averaging nearly three runs in the first five innings per game. Meanwhile, Colorado is allowing the second-most runs in the first five frames at 3.22 per game.

Luke Raley has been seeing the ball extremely well this season, especially on the road, where he owns a .522 SLG, .842 OPS, and 137 wRC+, while making 55.6% hard contact with a 20% barrel rate.

He matches up very well against Athletics right-hander Aaron Civale, who owns the seventh-worst pitcher rating on the day.

I'm on the market here and wouldn't play this below 7, but at a plus-money price with how the Yankees are swinging lately, I'm inclined to lean towards the Under. The Yankees' offense, one of the best in the sport for long stretches over the past three years, has really struggled lately. It's been held to three runs or fewer in nine of its past 14 games. It should be ugly conditions in Yankee Stadium today, add in Ryan Weathers' strikeout rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile of baseball, and both offenses should stay fairly quiet.