MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter the day as Batters-Box's highest rated offense, posting an average hitter matchup rating of 0.514 against Jameson Taillon. Six Pirates hitters grade out as elite, with five expected to bat from the left side, where Taillon has been crushed all season. Over his last 60 left handed batters faced, he owns a 9.75 ERA while allowing a .402 xBA, .807 xSLG, and .447 wOBA. Taillon has also struggled overall recently, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP across his last three starts. Expect Pittsburgh to put pressure on him from the opening inning.

Janson Junk draws one of the worst strikeout matchups on the board against a disciplined Padres lineup. Over his last five starts, the Marlins right hander owns an 8.39 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and just a 15.79% strikeout rate, while Batters-Box projects him with the day's lowest matchup strikeout percentage at 14.82%. San Diego has no projected hitters with an above league average strikeout rate, making this an even tougher spot for Junk to rack up punchouts. With the Padres swinging the bats well recently, I expect them to put pressure on him early, making the plus money on the under an attractive play.

Munetaka Murakami enters Sunday as Batters-Box's top rated hitter, carrying nearly 92% arsenal coverage against Astros right hander Ronel Blanco. Sunday marks his 40th elite rating of the season, and through his previous 39 elite rated games, he has homered 30.77% of the time. While he has yet to go deep since returning from injury before the All Star break, he has been squaring the ball up with multiple doubles. Blanco enters with a 7.71 ERA through one start and, over the last three seasons, owns Batters-Box's third worst pitcher rating. Everything lines up for Murakami to finally leave the yard today.

Betting against Jacob deGrom requires caution, but Texas’s overall bullpen metrics have cratered recently, sitting at a 166 ERA- and 5.15 xFIP. Seattle’s pitching group remains far more reliable with Logan Gilbert taking the ball. Getting Seattle near pick 'em odds (-104) offers strong value.

Cristopher Sanchez is elite at generating whiffs and making opponents chase, ranking in the 92nd percentile or higher in both regards.

Those skills should be highlighted against the New York Yankees, who sit last in the majors with a whopping 32.4 K% against left-handed pitching over the last 20 games.

Bet to -115.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.