Games are going all day long, and I've got a ton of looks to help us end the weekend on a high note!
Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Sunday, July 26.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jameson Taillon |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -109 |
 Janson Junk |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | +119 |
 Eric Fedde |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -108 |
Jameson Taillon Over 2.5 earned runs (-109)
The highest-rated offense on the slate, according to Batters-Box's current-season dataset, is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have an average hitter matchup rating of 0.514.
To put that into perspective, a rating above 0.45 is considered elite. Against Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon, the Pirates lineup features six elite-rated hitters, four with below league-average strikeout rates and only two with above league-average ground ball rates.
Taillon has struggled all season, and over his last three outings he owns a 5.40 ERA, 4.45 xERA, and 1.54 WHIP, while allowing a 44.12% hard hit rate and 11.76% barrel rate.
On top of that, five of those six elite-rated hitters will bat from the left side, and the Cubs right-hander has been hammered by lefties all season.
Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Taillon owns a 9.75 ERA while allowing an 18.6% barrel rate and just a 27.9% ground ball rate. Those hitters have produced a .402 xBA, .807 xSLG, and .447 wOBA against him.
I think the Pirates get all over Taillon early and often. I'd still play this down to -120 if I had to.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, SNP
Janson Junk Under 3.5 strikeouts (+119)
We are heading to the land down under with Miami Marlins right-hander Janson Junk, taking the Under on his strikeout prop against the San Diego Padres.
Junk has struggled tremendously, posting an 8.39 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and a 15.79% strikeout rate over his last five starts. He also owns the lowest matchup strikeout percentage on Batters-Box today at just 14.82%.
In 14 poorly rated games, Junk has stayed Under four strikeouts 57.14% of the time. While it is not the biggest sample size, it is at least above 10 games.
More importantly, in 21 games with a poor strikeout matchup, he has stayed Under this number 38% of the time. If you're looking at the Under five Ks, that hit rate jumps to 71.43% — showing Junk rarely piles up strikeouts.
The Padres are also a difficult lineup to target for punchouts. According to Batters-Box, they have zero hitters with an above league average strikeout rate and only four hitters with an above league average ground ball rate.
On top of that, only two hitters in the projected lineup own a strikeout rate of 23.3% or higher over their last 30 at bats against right-handed pitching. The Padres offense has also been swinging the bats well lately, and I think they get to Junk early this afternoon.
At +119, this is a great price. I'd play it down to +110.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SDPA
Eric Fedde Over 2.5 earned runs (-108)
Boots will be on the ground for what I think will be a Houston Astros sweep over the Chicago White Sox, especially with Eric Fedde on the mound for Chicago.
The Astros have looked like the better team throughout this series, and even with it being Munetaka Murakami bobblehead day, I think Fedde gets lit up.
Fedde enters with the seventh-worst pitcher rating on the slate according to Batters-Box's current season dataset. He draws one elite-rated hitter in Yordan Alvarez, along with two other strong-rated bats.
While the White Sox right-hander has improved as the season has gone on, he is still allowing a 43.66% hard hit rate over his last five starts. Even more concerning, that number jumps above 51% over his last three outings.
The Astros have also been swinging the bats well, posting a 113 wRC+, .755 OPS, and .333 wOBA over their last 21 games. They have been one of the more consistent offenses during that stretch, and I expect them to keep that rolling this afternoon.
I'd play this down to -115 at most.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
- Prop picks: 339-648, -7.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
