Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 5, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
NYM
@
ATL
Sun, Jul 5 • 12:30 PM ET
While I do think the Atlanta Braves are better equipped to take advantage of this pitching matchup, Nolan McLean is striking out 28.5% of batters and ranks in the 95th percentile of qualified pitchers in fastball run value. Meanwhile, the New York Mets only managed one run on four hits over 5.1 innings the last time they faced Martin Perez. I’m backing the Under, and I’d be willing to do so at a flat nine runs as well.
The already poor New York Mets offense has been floundering lately, averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last five outings. New York can hit the ball hard when they make contact, but Atlanta Braves starter Martin Perez has an excellent 48.2% ground ball rate while only allowing batters to barrel the ball up 6.8% of the time. I'm taking the Braves to win at -120 or better.
PIT
@
WAS
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:00 PM ET
PIT (-120)
Pirates hitters have enjoyed facing Miles Mikolas, posting a .341/.390/.599 slash line across 85 at-bats against the Washington right-hander. With Bubba Chandler's 4.15 xERA signaling positive relative to his 4.82 ERA, expect Pittsburgh to stand tall in the nation's capital.
BAL
@
CIN
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:05 PM ET
MIN
@
NYY
Sun, Jul 5 • 1:35 PM ET
CHW
@
CLE
Sun, Jul 5 • 2:00 PM ET
STL
@
CHC
Sun, Jul 5 • 2:30 PM ET
PHI
@
KC
Sun, Jul 5 • 3:00 PM ET
TB
@
HOU
Sun, Jul 5 • 3:30 PM ET
DET
@
TEX
Sun, Jul 5 • 3:30 PM ET
MIL
@
AZ
Sun, Jul 5 • 4:00 PM ET
SF
@
COL
Sun, Jul 5 • 4:00 PM ET
MIA
@
ATH
Sun, Jul 5 • 4:30 PM ET
TOR
@
SEA
Sun, Jul 5 • 5:00 PM ET
SD
@
LAD
Sun, Jul 5 • 7:20 PM ET
BOS
@
LAA
Sun, Jul 5 • 9:30 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
o2.5 Team Total (-115)
The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.
Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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