MLB Picks

There are some great hitting conditions for right-handed bats at Fenway today, with 21-mph winds blowing out toward the Monster in left field. Sonny Gray has been fortunate when it comes to home runs at home this season, allowing just one over 31+ innings, but he owned the fifth-worst HR/FB rate in baseball among qualified starters last year. Regression is coming. Kazuma Okamoto isn't hitting for average right now, but he leads the team with 15 home runs, owns a low groundball rate (35% over the last 14 days), and paces the club in hard-hit rate. He doesn't have the fastest bat on the team, but when he makes contact, he's squaring the ball up at a 34% clip, which ranks among the top 50 hitters in baseball. This is one of the best +EV home run props on the board today, alongside George Springer at +490, with a fair price closer to +410.

Let's call it what it is: this is a bet on Joe Ryan, one of the better starting pitchers in the American League. He's also looking to make a strong impression over the next couple of weeks, as several teams are expected to target him ahead of the trade deadline. Ryan features a four-seam fastball that he relies on heavily. While the pitch won't blow hitters away with velocity—it sits around 94 mph—it's his release point and the flat, rising trajectory that make it so difficult for batters to track and square up. This pitch profiles very well against the middle of the Rangers' lineup, particularly their right-handed bats in Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Jake Burger. If those hitters struggle to find success, where is the offense coming from for Texas? I make the Twins closer to a -135 favorite in this spot.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 10th-best batter in the league when it comes to his batting average skill.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league parks.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Sean Manaea has turned things around in a big way, allowing two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, and now draws a Phillies lineup that ranks 25th in OPS against left-handed pitching over the last month. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola looks washed, posting a 5.86 ERA this season. The Mets enter with the hotter bats and could catch a break against a Phillies bullpen that was heavily taxed yesterday with the team using eight pitchers.

Sean Burke over his last five starts, his walk rate sits near 15%, with even worse trends versus left-handed hitters at 18.3% over his last 60 faced. On the road and versus righties, the control issues still linger above double digits. He now draws a disciplined Yankees lineup that consistently works counts and draws free passes, with multiple hitters showing strong walk rates across recent sample sizes. With a 2.5 line and plus money better than +130 is clear value down to +120.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #5 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

The Kansas City Royals are trading as a -113 favorite over the St. Louis Cardinals on Thursday, and I'm willing to back that number, as I make the Royals closer to a -130 favorite in this spot. Matthew Liberatore relies on locating his fastball and using effective pitch sequencing to record outs. For Bobby Witt Jr., this sets up as an excellent matchup. Against a left-handed pitcher whose slider and curveball break into his bat path, Witt Jr.'s short, compact, lightning-fast swing should play very well. Witt Jr. is an elite fastball hunter and should be able to capitalize on any mistakes Liberatore makes, especially given his below-average velocity. If Witt Jr. is getting on base and collecting extra bases, it opens the door for the rest of the Royals' offense, particularly because of the pressure he puts on both the defense and the pitcher with his speed on the basepaths.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Shea Langeliers as MLB's 15th-best home run hitter.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Sutter Health Park projects as the #2 venue in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate today at 100°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.