MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Victor Caratini logo
Victor Caratini o0.5 Total RBIs (+281)
Projection 0.5
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Victor Caratini is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 ballpark in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Progressive Field's left field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
Total Home Runs
Ryan Jeffers logo
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Projection 0.17
Best Odds
Pick made: 26 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Among all major league stadiums, Progressive Field's left field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. The weather report calls for the 4th-best hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.8-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+206)
Projection 1.58
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.2°, Teoscar Hernandez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 20.1° mark in the past 14 days.
Total Bases
Freddie Freeman logo
Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2.01
Best Odds
Pick made: 34 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his batting average talent, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 11th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Freddie Freeman will hold the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in today's game... and even better, Wheeler has a large platoon split.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ New York Yankees logo NYY Tue, Jul 21 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+121)
Projection 1.88
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions of the day at 88%.. Because of Will Warren's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
Total Bases
Bryan Reynolds logo
Bryan Reynolds o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his BABIP talent, Bryan Reynolds is projected as the 19th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the most humid conditions of the day at 88%.. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Will Warren... and even better, Warren has a large platoon split.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Tue, Jul 21 • 7:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Daulton Varsho logo
Daulton Varsho o0.5 Total RBIs (+239)
Projection 0.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Daulton Varsho will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today.. Extreme groundball bats like Daulton Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
Total RBIs
Cedric Mullins logo
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+204)
Projection 0.62
Best Odds
Pick made: 16 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cedric Mullins is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-most humidity of the day (87%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson logo
Gunnar Henderson o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest.. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.1°, Gunnar Henderson has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 39° figure in the past week.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jackson Merrill logo
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.99
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Fernando Tatis Jr. logo
Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.15
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Bo Bichette logo
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 6th-best hitter in the league when assessing his batting average talent.. Bo Bichette is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Andrew Vaughn logo
Andrew Vaughn o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 19 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Vaughn in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Andrew Vaughn is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+122)
Projection 1.98
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. The #10 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #10 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Salvador Perez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. In the past week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.6% up to 25%.
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Braden Montgomery logo
Braden Montgomery o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Projection 0.24
Best Odds
Pick made: 20 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Colson Montgomery as the league's 16th-best home run hitter.. Colson Montgomery is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Colson Montgomery will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kumar Rocker in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Rocker has a large platoon split.. Colson Montgomery's launch angle this season (23.1°) is quite a bit better than his 18° figure last season.
Total Hits
Brandon Nimmo logo
Brandon Nimmo u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.9
Best Odds
Pick made: 21 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the 2nd-worst park in the game for lefty batting average.. The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Given Noah Schultz's large platoon split, Brandon Nimmo will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in today's matchup.. Brandon Nimmo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 6th-deepest CF fences today.. Over the past week, Brandon Nimmo's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but it's the Cubs whom I trust more in this spot. They have been dialed in at the plate of late, and I'm expecting Framber Valdez to return to his struggles against a good-hitting Cubbies side. 

Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle logo
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.76
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Kevin McGonigle generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.. By putting up a 0.99 K/BB rate this year, Kevin McGonigle has displayed favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 98th percentile.. By putting up a .288 batting average this year, Kevin McGonigle is ranked in the 91st percentile.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Houston Astros logo HOU Tue, Jul 21 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
LaMonte Wade Jr. logo
LaMonte Wade Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
Projection 0.67
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 14th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. This year, LaMonte Wade Jr. has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 25% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.. The #3 park in baseball for suppressing batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez logo
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams today.. Heriberto Hernandez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.3% seasonal rate to 29.4% over the last 14 days.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Tue, Jul 21 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 2.09
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. Ezequiel Tovar will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases
Dylan Crews logo
Dylan Crews o1.5 Total Bases (+104)
Projection 2.16
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.7-mph in this game, the 3rd-best of the day for bats.. The Colorado Rockies infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today.
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+131)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Mike Trout will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game.
Total Bases
Jordan Walker logo
Jordan Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Los Angeles Angels.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Let's dial up a bet on the Reds tonight behind Chase Burns and his excellent strikeout ability. The M's are the third-worst K team at home, and Burns has racked up 7+ Ks in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That'll be enough to help the Reds pick up the win. 

Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz logo
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.2
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 87°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Luis Castillo... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total RBIs
Colby Thomas logo
Colby Thomas o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.42
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colby Thomas in the 80th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Colby Thomas is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field grades out as the #3 ballpark in the league for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Colby Thomas will hold the platoon advantage against Kohl Drake in today's game.
Total RBIs
Shea Langeliers logo
Shea Langeliers o0.5 Total RBIs (+100)
Projection 0.83
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Shea Langeliers projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Chase Field grades out as the #3 ballpark in the league for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Kohl Drake throws from, Shea Langeliers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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