MLB Picks

James Wood is my favorite home run target of the day as he draws Yankees starter Will Warren. Warren has struggled against left handed hitters recently, allowing a 45% hard hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and just a 15% ground ball rate over his last 30 batters faced. Meanwhile, Wood has elite matchup coverage and has been crushing right handed pitching, generating a 66.7% hard hit rate and 22.2% barrel rate over his last 30 at bats. With his power profile and Warren’s recent struggles elevating the baseball, Wood is in a premium spot to leave the yard.

Bobby Witt Jr. finds himself in a premium spot against Shane Baz, as he owns nearly 72% arsenal coverage against Baz’s pitch mix, per Batters-Box. Witt Jr. has also excelled in elite rated away matchups, homering in over 26% of those spots over the last three seasons. The Royals star has been keeping the ball elevated against right handed pitching while posting a .500 SLG and .250 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. Baz has struggled against right handed bats at home, and with warm 80 degree weather in the forecast, Witt Jr. has a strong opportunity to go deep.

Elly De La Cruz is in a prime spot this afternoon against Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd. Cruz carries an elite Batters-Box rating with 82.6% arsenal coverage against Boyd’s pitch mix. Against southpaws over his last 30 plate appearances, Cruz is hitting .400 with a .840 SLG, 1.340 OPS, and .440 ISO, while generating a 64.7% hard hit rate and 29.4% barrel rate. Boyd has struggled against right handed bats, allowing a 48.8% hard hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate. With Cruz’s 50% HR/FB rate, this sets up as a potential missile spot.

Tarik Skubal’s vulnerability to the long ball may produce early runs. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler has been the center of drama. Snubbed for the All-Star Game in his home park despite a 9-1 record, he turned down a Friday invite as an injury replacement, saying he was “disrespected” and “a fifth option”. He could pitch like he has something to prove today, a potentially disruptive change in his usual preparation.

With Philly’s pen and a Detroit bullpen that’s also put in plenty of work lately, the Under odds seem too expensive.

Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda continues to be one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, making him an appealing target in this matchup against Mariners right hander Emerson Hancock. Aranda has thrived against right handed pitching, posting a .353 batting average, .433 OBP, and .923 OPS over his last 60 plate appearances. Hancock has struggled with left handed hitters, allowing elevated contact and hard hit rates, especially away from home. With Aranda holding nearly 92% arsenal coverage against Hancock’s pitch mix and the price sitting at -123, this is a strong value spot I would play up to -130.

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.