Sunday’s MLB card is loaded with a ton of value from both pitchers and hitters this afternoon. Let’s break down the best pitcher props and top bats to attack on today’s slate. Time to dive into the Sunday card!
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks for Sunday, July 12.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 German Marquez |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -118 |
 Paul Skenes |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -149 |
 Jonathan Aranda |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -123 |
German Marquez Over 2.5 earned runs (-118)
Entering Sunday evening, San Diego Padres right-hander Germán Márquez owns the worst pitcher rating on the slate over at Batters-Box. Their model also grades him poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. On top of that, he draws five elite-rated Toronto Blue Jays hitters and four more with strong ratings.
Over the last three seasons, when the Blue Jays have had an average hitter matchup rating of .458 or better, they've scored 4+ runs in 52.94% of games. While that stat covers the full game, the data is based on the opposing starting pitcher.
Márquez has also struggled in recent outings, posting a 6.23 ERA, 5.64 xERA, and 1.61 WHIP over his last three starts. Toronto has been in a bit of a slump over the past week, but the offense has started to heat up heading into the All-Star break. I like this spot for the Blue Jays, and I love the price. I just wouldn't play it any higher than -130.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, Sportsnet
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-149)
Despite Paul Skenes' last few starts being some of the worst we've seen from him, he remains one of the most dominant strikeout pitchers in baseball. Over his last five starts, he still owns a 29% strikeout rate, and that number jumps to nearly 32.5% at home this season.
His Batters-Box trends are what really push me toward the Over. In 62 elite ratings over the last three seasons, Skenes has recorded 6+ strikeouts 79% of the time, 7+ strikeouts 54.84% of the time, and 8+ strikeouts 35.48% of the time.
In 55 games with an elite strikeout percentage, those numbers improve to 81.81% for 6+, 58.18% for 7+, and 41.82% for 8+ strikeouts.
The Milwaukee Brewers also have four hitters over their last 60 plate appearances with strikeout rates above 25.4%. I think this is a great spot for the Pittsburgh Pirates' ace to close out the first half on a high note. Do not pay much more for this prop; take an alternate line if you need to.
- Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock
Jonathan Aranda Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-123)
One of the most consistent hitters in baseball is Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda, who has gone Over this prop in nearly 68% of his elite-rated matchups on Batters-Box. This afternoon, he draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock, a pitcher whose arsenal Aranda has nearly 92% coverage against.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Aranda owns a .353 batting average, .433 OBP, and .923 OPS.
Away from home this season, Hancock has allowed left-handed hitters to produce a 58% elevation rate and a 41.5% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, opponents own a .312 expected batting average and .491 expected slugging percentage, while elevating the ball 70.5% of the time.
At -123, we're getting great value on a hitter in a strong lineup spot. I'd play this up to -130.
- Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, SEAM
- Prop picks: 297-551, -11.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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