Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 23, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
SD
@
ATL
Thu, Jul 23 • 12:15 PM ET
o7.5 (-126)
Both offenses enter in excellent form, with San Diego carrying a 159 wRC+ and strong recent power, while Atlanta owns a 150 wRC+ and .229 ISO over the last week. Canning’s hard-contact issues and Atlanta’s shaky bullpen create multiple scoring paths for this modest 7.5-run total this afternoon.
ATL -1.5 (-126)
Chris Sale gives Atlanta a strong pitching edge, posting a 2.77 FIP over his last four appearances while limiting hard contact. Griffin Canning has shown improvement, but his 4.83 xERA and 45.5% hard-hit rate create concern against a Braves lineup carrying a 150 wRC+ over the last week.
MIN
@
CLE
Thu, Jul 23 • 1:10 PM ET
o7.5 (-115)
The Cleveland Guardians don’t have gaudy numbers but the offense is potent when healthy, and we’re starting to see that – they’ve scored 5+ runs in five of the last seven.
Minnesota may not be a team that comes to mind when thinking of prolific offenses. However, they rank first – yes, first! – in ISO on the road vs. righties.
Play to -125.
CLE (-140)
Gavin Williams owns a 2.39 xFIP over the last 30 days, which does not align with his 4.70 ERA.
The Cleveland Guardians are fourth in OPS vs. RHP the past 10 games, and star Jose Ramirez just returned. Williams should get the support he needs.
Bet to -150.
TB
@
TOR
Thu, Jul 23 • 3:07 PM ET
Ian Seymour o1.5 Walks Allowed (+115)
Ian Seymour has not gotten deep over his last two starts, throwing 61 and 78 pitches, but he has hit this Over in both of those games. His control away from the Trop is also favorable, as his BB/9 on the road sits at 4.8 vs. 2.6 at home. That's 11 walks in 18 road innings. Toronto might not be the best BB% team in baseball, but this offense is more than struggling and has to see pitches today vs. a struggling pitcher with control issues. THE BAT is projecting 85 pitches and 1.74 walks, making the break-even price around -115/-120.
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Junior Caminero enters Thursday with one of the strongest matchups on Batters-Box, covering 71% of Shane Bieber’s pitch mix. The Rays slugger has crushed elite road matchups, surpassing this prop 60% of the time while leaving the yard 30% across 20 elite road games. He has also been locked in against right handed pitching, posting a .375 BA, 1.042 OPS, and .457 wOBA over his last 30 at-bats. Bieber has struggled with right handed hitters, allowing a 55% hard hit rate and .470 xwOBA. Caminero is one of my favorite looks on the board today.
AZ
@
STL
Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
Brandon Pfaadt u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
Brandon Pfaadt is the definition of a pitch-to-contact starter. He is averaging just half a strikeout per inning this season and rarely gets to those deep two-strike counts needed to pile up Ks. Nick Martinez leads MLB in pitches per plate appearance among qualified starters at 3.5, but Pfaadt isn't far behind at 3.6. He is not one of the league leaders in making hitters work, and that doesn't translate into strikeouts. His K/9 ranks in the bottom 25 among MLB starters, and his bottom-15th percentile whiff rate is nothing to chase. The innings can be misleading because Pfaadt gets deep by letting hitters put the ball in play early, not by overpowering them. The projections show value on his Under 3.5 strikeouts, but they are based on a 91-pitch workload that feels aggressive. Pfaadt has thrown 87, 77, and 72 pitches over his last three starts and hasn't recorded more than 16 outs in any of them. I'm playing the Under 3.5 Ks down to -120.
Brandon Pfaadt u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-111)
Brandon Pfaadt has been solid recently, but we are looking to fade the Diamondbacks right hander’s strikeout prop against the Cardinals. Despite his recent success, Pfaadt owns just a 15% strikeout rate across his last five starts. St. Louis has excelled at making contact, especially at home, where they carry a 77.5% contact rate this season and a 76.7% mark over their last six games. With the Cardinals posting a sub 20% strikeout rate at home, they have the ability to put the ball in play consistently and limit Pfaadt’s strikeouts.
KC
@
DET
Thu, Jul 23 • 6:40 PM ET
I don't trust Royals SP Randy Dobnak, so I will target a pair of Tigers sluggers who often hit in the heart of the lineup to pick up an RBI, which correlates nicely with the Detroit team total Over 4.5. Dillon Dingler leads the team with 22 home runs, and Greene is third with 15. Both are hitting north of .270, and that number improves vs. right-handed pitching. If you want to boost the odds a little more, adding leadoff man Kevin McGonigle to score a run takes our SGP to +575.
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total Home Runs (+569)
Dillon Dingler continues to offer value against right-handed pitching because he's a true reverse-splits hitter who crushes righties. He owns a .928 OPS against RHPs this season, and 18 of his 22 home runs have come against them. He's also in the middle of a power binge after launching three homers in the Cubs series while going 7-for-12 with a ridiculous 2.032 OPS at Wrigley. Detroit gets Triple-A arm Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA paints a much prettier picture than his underlying numbers. His 5.61 xERA and 5.68 FIP suggest regression is coming, and his LOB% and BABIP have been carrying him. This is a great home run price for a reverse-splits hitter in excellent form against a pitcher who has been living on borrowed time.
TOR
@
CHC
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer.
Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.
ATL
@
CHW
Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
o8.5 (-105)
Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.
ATL (-112)
I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.
BOS
@
NYY
Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
o8.5 (-110)
The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.
NYY (-135)
Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.
SF
@
ATL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
o7.5 (-116)
SF (+124)
The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.
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