The American League Championship Series begins with the Tampa Bay Rays trading as home favorites over the Cleveland Guardians ahead of their 8 p.m. first pitch at Tropicana Field on Monday, Oct. 12.
I have a trio of MLB picks to cover you for Game 1, and it's Tampa Bay star Junior Caminero headlining my favorite Guardians vs. Rays prop picks tonight.
Best Guardians vs Rays props
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| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
52% |
| Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts |
51% |
 Foster Griffin Over 13.5 outs recorded |
52% |
Prop pick #1: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero put up an impressive .390 wOBA and .204 ISO against left-handed pitchers during the regular season, and Cleveland Guardians southpaw Foster Griffin spun a target-worthy 4.57 xERA and 4.03 xFIP against right-handed batters.
With Caminero hitting in the heart of the Tampa lineup and sporting a .351 xwOBA and .266 xISO during the playoffs, he’s positioned to fill up the box score in the series opener.
I'd recommend this Over to 58%.
Prop pick #2: Drew Rasmussen Over 5.5 strikeouts
The Guardians have been limited to a .211 xwOBA and .049 xISO by Tampa righty Drew Rasmussen, and the Rays starter fanned 10 New York Yankees last time out.
Rasmussen also finished the regular season with a solid 26.0% strikeout rate across his 30 starts, and his underlying 2.87 xERA and 3.19 xFIP across his final 10 outings reinforce his emergence as a high-end hurler.
I also value Rasmussen starting on extended rest, so he’s set up to pitch deep into Game 1, and I recommend this Over to 57%.
Prop pick #3: Foster Griffin Over 13.5 outs recorded
Tampa Bay finished the regular season 27th in wOBA and 30th in ISO against lefties, and Giffrin is rested after throwing just 2 2/3 postseason innings on Wednesday, Oct. 7.
Griffin completed five or more frames in six of his nine Cleveland starts down the stretch, and I’m anticipating the Guardians brass looking for an extended outing from the southpaw after turning to the bullpen for 27 innings during the American League Division Series.
This Over is in play to 56%.
- Prop picks: 12-7, +4.74 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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