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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 11, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.24 |
+166 
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135 
|
|
4.80 |
-190 
|
u8.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +120 
|
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Imanagas last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+225
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+160 
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -132
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -117
|
-1.5 +120
|
Colorado
- Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 overall.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0-1 in Tigers last 7 vs. National League West.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Valdezs last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Valdezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Colt Keith u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
u0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.01 |
+132
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -160
|
|
4.49 |
-143
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +143
|
LA Angels
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 starts as an underdog.
Washington
- Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Nationals are 7-0 in Cavallis last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Nationals are 5-0 in Cavallis last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.82 |
+120
|
o7.5 -132
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
5.02 |
-134
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
NY Mets
- Under is 5-0-2 in McLeans last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Mets are 5-0 in McLeans last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-0-1 in Mets last 8 games following a win.
- Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bo Bichette o0.5 Total RBIs (+219)
o0.5+219
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.81 |
+108
|
o8.0 -110
|
+1.5 -195
|
|
4.60 |
-125
|
u8.5 -125
|
-1.5 +172
|
Baltimore
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Bassitts last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf.
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 road starts.
Toronto
- Under is 4-0-1 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last 4 starts on astroturf.
Top Projection
Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
+146
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -149
|
|
4.60 |
-170
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +130
|
Houston
- Over is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 road games.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Astros last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Astros are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in Rasmussens last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 9-0 in Rasmussens last 9 starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Top Projection
Miguel Ullola o1.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.96 |
-209
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 -115
|
|
3.15 |
+180
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 +100
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 overall.
- Dodgers are 7-0 in their last 7 games on grass.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win.
- Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 road games.
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Gustos last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+170
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -125
|
|
5.26 |
-195
|
u8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +112
|
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 7-0 in Grays last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+214)
o0.5+214
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+160
|
o7.5 -108
|
+1.5 -138
|
|
4.94 |
-190
|
u7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +125
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 5-0 in Nolas last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Nolas last 4 road starts.
- Under is 7-1-2 in Nolas last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Sales last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+258)
o0.5+260
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.93 |
+160
|
o7.5 -120
|
+1.5 -140
|
|
4.53 |
-180
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +125
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 road games.
- Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 games as a road underdog.
Milwaukee
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 8-1 in Harrisons last 9 home starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Harrisons last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Brewers are 8-2 in Harrisons last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-120
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.10 |
+105
|
u7.5 -102
|
+1.5 -164
|
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Minnesota
- Twins are 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0 in Bradleys last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 4-0 in Bradleys last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+158)
o0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.35 |
-110
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.92 |
-104
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 4-0 in Kays last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Kays last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
Top Projection
Joshua Baez o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.92 |
+112
|
o8.5 -150
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.00 |
-130
|
u9.5 -132
|
-1.5 +165
|
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 overall.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 on grass.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+185
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.72 |
-160
|
o9.5 -130
|
-1.5 -105
|
|
5.15 |
+145
|
u10.5 -125
|
+1.5 -110
|
Seattle
- Over is 6-0 in Kirbys last 6 starts vs. American League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 road starts.
- Over is 5-1 in Kirbys last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
Athletics
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Springs' last 7 home starts.
Top Projection
Taylor Ward o0.5 Total Home Runs (+560)
o0.5+620
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.88 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.87 |
+130
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
San Diego
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts on grass.
- Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 games on grass.
San Francisco
- Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Manny Machado o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+169
PIT
@
CHC
Fri, Sep 11 • 2:20 PM ET
Spread
CHC -1.5 (+120)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
I'm recommending the Chicago -1.5 run line to +110 because the Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Cubs southpaw Shota Imagana is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts. Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Brandon Lowe is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.. In the league, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. Hitting from the same side that Shota Imanaga throws from, Brandon Lowe will have a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
COL
@
DET
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+282)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Connor Norby is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Among all major league parks, Comerica Park has the lowest average fence height.. Connor Norby will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup.. Connor Norby's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 18.5% on the season to 66.7% over the past week.
Total Hits
BC
Brett Callahan u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brett Callahan ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brett Callahan is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today.. Brett Callahan has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 67% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.. The #5 field in the game for suppressing BABIP to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Comerica Park.. The 2nd-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Comerica Park.
LAA
@
WAS
Fri, Sep 11 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for long-balls.. Hitters such as Mike Trout with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cade Cavalli who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Washington Nationals infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.
Total Bases
MB
Moises Ballesteros u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, Moises Ballesteros has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 33% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Nationals Park grades out as the #26 stadium in the league for LHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Moises Ballesteros today.. In the past two weeks, Moises Ballesteros's 3.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.
NYM
@
NYY
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Marcus Semien o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #9 park in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Marcus Semien will have an advantage today.. Marcus Semien's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, increasing from 16.4% on the season to 21.2% in the past two weeks.. Despite posting a .277 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcus Semien has experienced some negative variance given the .034 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.
Total Bases
Cody Bellinger o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Cody Bellinger is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's matchup.. Cody Bellinger will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
BAL
@
TOR
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.98
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Pete Alonso projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best park in the game for right-handed home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. Pete Alonso has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 14% seasonal rate to 25% in the past 7 days.
Total RBIs
Leody Taveras o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Rogers Centre as the 6th-best stadium in the game for LHB home runs.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors.. The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Max Scherzer.. Leody Taveras has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.9-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph average.
HOU
@
TB
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jose Altuve o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the league for righty home runs.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams playing today.
Total RBIs
Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+136)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 16th-best batter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 3rd-best park in the league for righty home runs.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball batters like Junior Caminero tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Miguel Ullola.
LAD
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Ryan Gusto o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110)
Projection 4.19
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
LoanDepot Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which often leads to lower offensive output.. This contest is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Ryan Gusto will hold that advantage today.. It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 11.1% more often this year (59.4%) than he did last year (48.3%).. Ryan Gusto's 2404-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 79th percentile among all starting pitchers.
Total RBIs
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 9th-best batter in the game when it comes to his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Otto Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Blake Snell in today's game.. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams playing today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's game.
KC
@
BOS
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
Spread
BOS -1.5 (+112)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray gives Boston a sizable starting-pitching advantage over Seth Lugo, whose 5.04 ERA makes him difficult to trust against this lineup at Fenway. Gray owns a 2.69 ERA with 17 wins, and Boston has the superior late-inning path. With the moneyline too expensive, I’ll lay the 1.5 runs instead.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+143)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 88th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Carter Jensen is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The 2nd-shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Fenway Park.. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Carter Jensen will have an advantage today.
PHI
@
ATL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+112)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.
Total Bases
J.T. Realmuto o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 4th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation among all parks, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest weather of all games today at 84°.. Because of Chris Sale's huge platoon split, J.T. Realmuto will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.
CIN
@
MIL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
Projection 0.62
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field profiles as the #8 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense.
Total Bases
Gary Sanchez u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Gary Sanchez's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. This year, Gary Sanchez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.. Gary Sanchez has been lucky this year, putting up a .346 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .316 — a .030 difference.. Gary Sanchez is in the 15th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (35.9% rate this year).
CLE
@
MIN
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The Minnesota Twins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.. Despite posting a .302 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jo Adell has had bad variance on his side given the .023 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.
Total Bases
Royce Lewis u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #6 stadium in the majors for suppressing home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. The 10th-deepest centerfield fences in MLB are found in Target Field.. The league's 5th-tallest average fence height can be found at Target Field.. Over the last two weeks, Royce Lewis's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 92 mph to 89.8 mph.. Posting a .288 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Royce Lewis finds himself in the 16th percentile for hitting ability.
CHW
@
STL
Fri, Sep 11 • 8:15 PM ET
Moneyline
STL (-105)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
I was on the White Sox yesterday, but it's a different story today. They just got swept at home by the Pirates and put up a donut last night. Now they have a tough travel spot, opening a series against the Cardinals today. The Cardinals have a fair probability of 58.3%, per THE BAT, and are the best +EV ML on the board today. Matthew Liberatore's 5.57 ERA might scare some away on the surface, but his 3.22 xFIP in the second half is the 24th-best mark among all starters, while his .373 BABIP and 56.6% LOB% are unsustainable. Chicago is also missing one of its best arms, lefty Hagen Smith, who threw 33 pitches last night. Chicago has clenched butt cheeks right now, and that division lead is slipping. This roster knows nothing about adversity, and it could be an ugly finish.
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Randal Grichuk pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 7th-deepest LF fences today.. Randal Grichuk will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .362 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .317 — a .045 difference.
TEX
@
AZ
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the game for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Wyatt Langford has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.9° figure in the last two weeks' worth of games.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the league for boosting offensive stats to left-handed hitters.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast projects for the 5th-best hitting conditions of all games on the slate.
SEA
@
ATH
Fri, Sep 11 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Taylor Ward o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 97°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for batters.
Total Bases
J.P. Crawford o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive skill, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Sutter Health Park projects as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Sutter Health Park has the 2nd-lowest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report calls for the hottest weather of all games on the slate at 97°.
SD
@
SF
Fri, Sep 11 • 10:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jake Cronenworth o0.5 Total RBIs (+245)
Projection 0.46
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jake Cronenworth is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 18-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony Molina throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have an edge today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Cronenworth's true offensive talent to be a .303, implying that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .038 disparity between that figure and his actual .265 wOBA.
Total RBIs
Bryce Eldridge o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Bryce Eldridge ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Eldridge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The shallowest RF fences in the league are found in Oracle Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 16.9-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Bryce Eldridge will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
Free Computer Picks by Odds Shark
More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
