San Diego @ Arizona picks

I’m working against the projections on this small, plus-money K prop. Stephen Kolek has gone back-to-back starts without giving up a run and has a season-high of 104 pitches. He can get deep but THE BAT has him for 84 pitches which is in the range of outcomes but on the lower side, in my opinion. He doesn’t have elite K% numbers, but six innings and four strikeouts is a floor here with his outs market sitting at 16.5. He hit this Over in four straight starts to begin the season but has gone Under in three straight turns which is why bettors are getting a great price today. His swinging K% could see an increase as it is down two points year on year. It’s a tough matchup (priced in) on the road, but at +115 or better for what is pretty close to a coin flip at 90 pitches is a buy. 

Corbin Carroll has come home to score in three straight games and in 20 of 34 home tilts this year. He has several teammates swinging hot bats behind him and faces a starter in the 50th percentile in xERA in Stephen Kolek.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best hitter in the league.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Gavin Sheets is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Chase Field grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Xander Bogaerts has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93.3-mph in the last week.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 19th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Eugenio Suarez has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase Field grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage over Ryne Nelson in today's game.. Over the last 14 days, Jake Cronenworth has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 10th-best hitter in the league.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in MLB, which generally leads to higher offensive output.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 19th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Eugenio Suarez has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.

Eugenio Suarez projects as the 19th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in MLB for righty batting average.. The weather forecast projects the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Eugenio Suarez has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek has a pitch-to-contact profile (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.