Boston @ Toronto props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Over the past 7 days, Wilyer Abreu's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.3% up to 25%. In the last week's worth of games, Wilyer Abreu's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92-mph over the course of the season to 95.8-mph recently.

The #6 stadium in the league for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage over Bo Bichette in today's game. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Bo Bichette's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 89.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 82.7-mph over the past week. In the last two weeks, Bo Bichette's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.8°.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Over the past week, Triston Casas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.9% up to 16.7%. In the past 7 days, Triston Casas's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.1-mph over the course of the season to 101.2-mph of late. Triston Casas has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .256 rate is a fair amount lower than his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 8th-best hitter in the game as it relates to his BABIP ability. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Casey Lawrence will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kristian Campbell today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Lawrence's large platoon split. Kristian Campbell has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.8-mph. In the past 14 days, Kristian Campbell's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 57.1%.

The #6 stadium in the league for suppressing base hits to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre. Hitting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Over the past week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.9%.

The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Alan Roden will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito today. Extreme flyball batters like Alan Roden are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Alan Roden will hold that advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .245 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alan Roden has been unlucky given the .059 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Rafael Devers has made big strides with his Barrel%, improving his 13.1% rate last season to 23% this season. Over the last 14 days, Rafael Devers has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 22.5% to 29%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Andres Gimenez will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito today. Extreme groundball hitters like Andres Gimenez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Lucas Giolito. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Casey Lawrence will hold the platoon advantage over Ceddanne Rafaela in today's game... and it's a particular mismatch considering Lawrence's large platoon split. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 16.5% to 21.1%. Ceddanne Rafaela has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .284 rate is a good deal lower than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Casey Lawrence will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Narvaez today... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Lawrence's large platoon split. Carlos Narvaez has been hot of late, compiling a a 16.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) in the last two weeks.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. Given Casey Lawrence's large platoon split, Trevor Story will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today's matchup. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Trevor Story has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 20th-best batter in baseball when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Sporting a .347 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jarren Duran is ranked in the 87th percentile for offensive ability. Sporting a .344 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Jarren Duran is ranked in the 84th percentile.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Anthony Santander has been unlucky this year, putting up a .252 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .075 gap. Grading out in the 75th percentile, Anthony Santander has put up a .333 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Addison Barger will have the handedness advantage against Lucas Giolito today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Addison Barger will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Addison Barger has been hot of late, notching a 92.5-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks. In terms of his batting average, Addison Barger has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .199 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Casey Lawrence will hold the platoon advantage over Alex Bregman today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Lawrence's large platoon split. Alex Bregman hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Over the last 7 days, Alex Bregman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 15.8%.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Alejandro Kirk will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Despite posting a .260 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alejandro Kirk has had some very poor luck given the .058 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318. As it relates to plate discipline, Alejandro Kirk's skill is quite good, posting a 1.56 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 81st percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. George Springer is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and George Springer will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.5°, George Springer has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.6° figure in the past two weeks.

Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Daulton Varsho will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Daulton Varsho's 24.3° launch angle (an advanced standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the steepest in the majors: 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The 10th-shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Rogers Centre. Ernie Clement will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Ernie Clement's launch angle this year (22.7°) is considerably better than his 16.2° angle last season. In the last 7 days, Ernie Clement's 30% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 24%.