Cleveland @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

Garrett Mitchell's BABIP ability is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Garrett Mitchell will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Williams in today's matchup. Garrett Mitchell may have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP. Garrett Mitchell hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Will Brennan has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 23% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team in action today. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Will Brennan in today's matchup. Over the past week, Will Brennan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%. In the last week's worth of games, Will Brennan's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 89.5 mph to 80 mph.

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the best out of every team in action today. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Steven Kwan today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive ability to be a .312, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .063 deviation between that figure and his actual .375 wOBA.

David Fry is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. David Fry has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 94.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 91-mph. In the last two weeks, David Fry has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 25.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.6°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. Jackson Chourio will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.2°, Jose Ramirez has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 22.3° figure over the last two weeks. Jose Ramirez has notched a .361 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 91st percentile.

Tyler Black is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Tyler Black will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams in today's game. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tyler Black can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Rhys Hoskins will hold that advantage in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.8°, Rhys Hoskins has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 41.3° figure in the last 7 days. Rhys Hoskins has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls. His 24.3° mark is among the highest in MLB this year (100th percentile).

Sal Frelick's batting average ability is projected to be in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams in today's matchup. Sal Frelick is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). William Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. William Contreras will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willy Adames is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's game.

The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Jhonkensy Noel has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 16.9% seasonal rate to 30% over the past week. Jhonkensy Noel has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 105.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 99.5-mph.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. This game is forecasted to have the highest humidity of all games today (76%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. Batting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jake Bauers is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP. Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cleveland (#2-worst of the day).

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Bo Naylor will have an edge in today's game. Bo Naylor hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Bo Naylor has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 96-mph in the last 7 days. Bo Naylor has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.1-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Andres Gimenez will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Civale in today's game. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Andres Gimenez has had some very poor luck this year. His .281 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .315.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Brice Turang will have the upper hand today. The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brice Turang can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Brice Turang hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The 8th-shallowest CF fences among all stadiums are found in American Family Field. Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Brayan Rocchio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 20% on the season to 31.3% in the past week. Brayan Rocchio has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .205 figure is deflated compared to his .222 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense. Daniel Schneemann will have the handedness advantage over Aaron Civale in today's game. Daniel Schneemann hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Daniel Schneemann has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph average.