MLB Picks

Pete Alonso has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and this matchup sets up perfectly for another big performance. He owns 85.6% arsenal coverage against Sean Burke, who has struggled to limit hard contact from right handed hitters. Over his last 60 righties faced, Burke has allowed a 76.3% elevation rate, along with a .517 xSLG and .506 wOBA. Alonso has been crushing right handed pitching himself, posting a .333 average, .792 slugging percentage, 1.259 OPS, .523 wOBA, and 20% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances. At plus money, this is simply too good of a number to pass up.

The Bronx Boys nearly got no-hit last night in the midst of swept by the Boston Red Sox scoring just nine runs in four games while consistently leaving runs stranded. Detroit has not been much cleaner, going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position over its past two games. Weathers is the risk because he gives up barrels, but Mize can suppress the better offense long enough to keep this game inside eight. I make this closer to 7.4 runs

Parker Messick enters in outstanding form and gives Cleveland a clear pitching advantage over a Texas club expected to rely heavily on its struggling bullpen. With the Rangers' relievers allowing more hard contact and home runs lately, the Guardians are well positioned to open the series with a victory.

Yordan Alvarez finds himself in another dream matchup, making it tough to ignore him once again. He owns nearly 100% arsenal coverage against Twins right hander Zebby Matthews, whose pitch mix plays directly into Alvarez's strengths. Matthews has been crushed by left handed hitters over his last 60 matchups, surrendering a 70% elevation rate, 40% hard hit rate, 11.5% barrel rate, .663 xSLG, and .476 xwOBA. If you are looking to avoid laying heavy juice, take Alvarez to hit a double or home run is worth considering. 

Eric Lauer is sporting a sky-high 51% fly ball rate and has allowed 2.23 homers per nine innings.  

He profiles as the exact kind of pitcher who will struggle mightily against a powerful Athletics offense in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. 

Gage Jump has also allowed at least three runs in two of three home starts, with a putrid Angels team being the lone exception.

Bet to -125.

I'm happy to pick against Diamondbacks LHP Eduardo Rodriguez every time he takes the bump. The 11-year veteran owns a glowing 2.27 ERA to this point in the season, but his xERA sits at 4.80 and is in the 22nd percentile. The D-Backs own the league's worst wRC+ against right-handers this season at 85, and face Giants RHP Tyler Mahle.

George Kirby enters in outstanding form after posting a 2.82 FIP across his last four starts, while Ryan Johnson continues allowing hard contact and home runs. Seattle has also been a much stronger offense at T-Mobile Park, making the Mariners well positioned to cover the run line.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.