Fresh week loaded with plenty of opportunities to keep things green. Here are my favorite MLB picks and leans for tonight’s MLB slate.
MLB moneyline picks for June 29
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 White Soxvs  Cardinals |
+125 |
 Piratesvs  Phillies |
+100 |
 Tigersvs  Yankees |
+130 |
 Metsvs  Blue Jays |
+117 |
 Rangersvs  Guardians |
-133 |
 Nationalsvs  Red Sox |
-160 |
 Redsvs  Brewers |
-138 |
| Pirates vs  Cubs |
-144 |
 Twinsvs  Astros |
-127 |
 Marlinsvs  Rockies |
+127 |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
+190 |
 Giantsvs  Diamondbacks |
+125 |
 Dodgersvs  Athletics |
+104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-29.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 29
White Sox vs Orioles: White Sox (+125)
White Sox win probability: 44%
People are going to see that the Chicago White Sox are on the road and fade them just for that reason. I think it's foolish to fade arguably one of the most dangerous teams in baseball, regardless of where they're playing.
Snagging the power of friendship at +125 feels like a gift, as they own a 140 wRC+, .372 wOBA, and .848 OPS over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles own a wRC+ below 80, .264 wOBA, and .633 OPS during that stretch. Give me the Sox!
Pirates vs Phillies: Pirates (-100)
Pirates win probability: 51%
Aaron Nola is on the bump for the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up a hard-hit rate above 42% and a barrel rate above 10.5%. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates have Braxton Ashcraft on the mound, sporting a 2.93 road ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and giving up just a 3.45% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
I want to ride the hotter offense, and that's clearly the Pirates, as they own a 149 wRC+, .878 OPS, and .380 wOBA over their last six games. GO RATS!
Tigers vs Yankees: Tigers (+130)
Tigers win probability: 44%
Disgusting.
These two offenses that are ice cold at the moment. It would be real easy for me to say this is a bounce back spot for the New York Yankees, after getting swept by the Red Sox this weekend, but at +130, I want the Detroit Tigers.
Over the last week, they've performed at a higher level offensively, and I love the value in taking them this evening.
Mets vs Blue Jays: Mets (+117)
Mets win probability: 46%
Another team coming off a sweep is the Toronto Blue Jays, who now take on a New York Mets team that's starting to heat up. New York has a 111 wRC+ over their last six games, with a .182 ISO and sub-10% barrel rate. On the other side, Toronto has a WRC+ below 80, a 24% strikeout rate, and a 5% barrel rate in their last six games.
Give me the Mets!
Rangers vs Guardians: Guardians (-133)
Guardians win probability: 57%
Sure, the Texas Rangers are scorching hot coming off sweeping the ice-cold Blue Jays, but now they have a real test in front of them: Parker Messick. The Cleveland Guardians southpaw has been nails this season, with a 2.89 ERA at home and a 2.45 xERA over his last three starts. The kid rocks. Sure, this Guardians offense has been abysmal, but we just need the bare minimum from them.
Nationals vs Red Sox: Red Sox (-160)
Red Sox win probability: 62%
Real quick and easy, staying home after sweeping the Yankees, I think the Boston Red Sox keep it rolling into Monday night. Plus, Ranger Suarez has been lights out in his last five starts.
Reds vs Brewers: Brewers (-138)
Brewers win probability: 58%
Without question: Milwaukee Brewers. Sure, both they and the Cincinnati Reds have been ice cold as of late, but the Reds are always cold in my opinion. They are the more inconsistent offense and have a much higher strikeout rate this season.
Cincinnati left-hander Nick Lodolo has been horrible this season, owning a 5.09 xERA in his last five starts. I don't see that turning around this evening.
Padres vs Cubs: Cubs (-144)
Cubs win probability: 59%
How am I supposed to back the San Diego Padres when Griffin Canning's 9.56 road ERA is in my face? Not to mention his 17% road walk rate, allowing nearly 45% hard hit and 10% barrel rate this season. I do not need to say anything more: take the Chicago Cubs. Canning will likely give up 4+ runs before the fifth.
Twins vs Astros: Astros (-127)
Astros win probability: 56%
I will get to my reasoning once we figure out what a "Zebby" is. Whatever the origin of that name is, he's still sporting a 7.33 road ERA, while his opponent, Peter Lamber, has a 2.16 xERA in his last three outings.
I love Yordan Alvarez today, so I have to lean with the Houston Astros.
Marlins vs Rockies: Rockies (+127)
Rockies win probability: 44%
Sure, Sean Sullivan has been brutal for the Pebbles this season, but their offense as of late has been on fire. In the Colorado Rockies' last 21 games, they own a 123 wRC+, .837 OPS, and .209 ISO. I am fully expecting them to be out for revenge after failing to secure the series win over the Twins yesterday.
Angels vs Mariners: Angels (+190)
Angels win probability: 34%
Two cold offenses, I want the value.
“But 34%, but 34%!”
Okay?
George Kirby has not looked like peak form over his last five outings, posting a sub-5.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP while allowing a 42% hard-hit rate. The Los Angeles Angels, meanwhile, have seven batters hitting above .333 over their last 30 plate appearances, with seven also carrying an OPS above .790.
Seattle’s offense has cooled off, and I want the plus money on the Angels at this price.
Giants vs Diamondbacks: Giants (+125)
Giants win probability: 44%
The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone ice cold at the plate. Over their last 21 games, they own an 87 wRC+, .659 OPS, and .134 ISO. On the other side, the San Francisco Giants have been one of the hotter offenses in baseball during that same stretch, posting a 124 wRC+, .342 wOBA, and .781 OPS.
Neither starting pitcher is particularly inspiring, but I trust the hotter lineup to capitalize. At plus money, I will gladly back the Giants in this spot.
Dodgers vs A's: Athletics (+104)
Athletics win probability: 49%
The Los Angeles Dodgers have just one hitter batting above .300 over their last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, with only two above .250 and six slugging under .357. I will side with the Athletics, who have been rolling against lefties this season. I already like Shea Langeliers to get things started, and hopefully the rest of the lineup follows him.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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