Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with premium bats in strong matchups across the board, setting the stage for plenty of power upside.
The big question is whether elite sluggers like Yordan Alvarez or Pete Alonso can cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight.
My best home run props for Monday, June 29 are banking on them to do just that.
Best MLB home run props today
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Yordan Alvarez
Pete Alonso
Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+215)
Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez enters Monday’s slate with arguably the best matchup of the day, drawing Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, against whom Alvarez has nearly 100% arsenal coverage.
The Minnesota right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate, a 40% hard-hit rate, and an 11.5% barrel rate over his last 60 left-handed batters faced. Those hitters have posted a .663 xSLG and a .476 xwOBA during that span.
Despite Alvarez’s .200 average over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is still generating a 43% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate, while posting a .403 wOBA.
The price is not ideal, but given the overall matchup, it is justified.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCH, MNNT
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+279)
For those who read how much I loved Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso to go Over 1.5 total bases against Sean Burke, in my MLB player props for tonight, how could I pass up his home run prop? Especially when the Chicago White Sox right-hander has allowed over a 76% elevation rate to the last 60 right handed hitters he has faced.
To add to that, Alonso has been seeing the ball extremely well of late, posting a 20% barrel rate, .792 SLG, and .523 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
This matchup has extra base hits written all over it. Hopefully one of them leaves the yard.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, MASN
- HR picks: 65-230, +12.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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