West Ham vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Newcastle Snag Three Road Points

While Newcastle is among the top EPL teams and in line for the Champions League next year, West Ham is threatening a relegation spot. Don't overthink this Wednesday matchup and back the visitors to win at plus money.

Apr 3, 2023 • 15:40 ET • 4 min read
Bruno Guimaraes Newcastle English Premier League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There's more midweek Premier League action this week and Wednesday serves up an interesting game between West Ham and Newcastle United.

Both clubs are at different ends of the table with the visitors chasing a Top-4 finish and Champions League qualification next season, while West Ham are battling just to stay in the division.

With 23 points separating the teams in the league, could we see West Ham get the victory or will Newcastle be too strong? Don’t miss our West Ham vs Newcastle free betting picks below to find out. 

West Ham vs Newcastle best odds

West Ham vs Newcastle picks and predictions

We have bonus Premier League action this week and West Ham vs. Newcastle is the pick of the games on Wednesday. With the Premier League moving several previously postponed games to this midweek window, it means we have even more EPL action to wager on.

A massive 23 points separate these two teams with West Ham worryingly close to the relegation slots despite being in the midst of a great European campaign. Whether European action has distracted the Hammers is a question worth asking but David Moyes' team hasn’t been at the level of recent seasons, in which they perhaps overperformed.

Then you have the visitors of Newcastle, who — fresh off Saudi Arabian investment — are looking to make a major statement and finish in the Top 4, locking them into a Champions League slot next year. They’ve been in great form, winning their past three in the Premier League, including a 2-0 win over Manchester United on Sunday.

This is a Newcastle team who have bounced back after the disappointment of losing the Carabao Cup final. They’ve taken nine points from the past nine available and look like a team who are well coached, full of self-belief, and who are incredibly tough to score against.

Those are the reasons that we’ll be backing the visitors to win here, with +115 odds that are simply too good to pass up. This is a Newcastle team who have been playing at such a high level lately: they comprehensively beat Manchester United, a performance that showed their class.

In recent weeks, they’ve also found a way to beat Wolves and Nottingham Forest despite conceding goals, something they haven’t done much of this season.

Newcastle’s defensive record is exceptional. Nobody in the Premier League has conceded fewer goals than Newcastle with just 19 allowed in 27 games. In fact, the next best defense is Man City and they’ve given up seven more goals than Eddie Howe’s team.

That great backline is the key to this matchup and they come into this in good health and not missing any of their starters. That bodes very well against West Ham who have scored just 25 goals in 27 games this season.

The truth is that West Ham has been reasonably good defensively but it’s their inability to score that’s causing them major issues and has turned their season into one which is getting worryingly close to relegation.

You’re getting huge value on a great Newcastle team with odds of +115. They come into this in good form and have allowed just ten goals on the road this season, which is seriously concerning for West Ham. There's no need to overthink this.

My best bet: Newcastle to win (+115 at DraftKings)

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West Ham vs Newcastle side analysis

As mentioned above, I do think you’re getting great value on Newcastle here and I’d back them at any odds above plus money against a toothless West Ham team.

West Ham tried to find goals by signing Danny Ings from Aston Villa in January but the striker has scored just twice since then and hasn’t done enough to justify the transfer just yet. He’ll be the focal point of the team’s 4-2-3-1 formation, a system that David Moyes has used well in recent seasons.

Defensively, we know this team is capable and Kurt Zouma and Nayef Aguerd are two good central defenders who will be tough to beat. The key for West Ham, as it always is, is Declan Rice. The England man hasn’t had his best season this year but he’s still their best-performing player by some margin and he’ll need to ensure he’s good both defensively and when he transitions the ball forward.

His midfield partner Tomas Soucek hasn’t hit his previous heights either but West Ham have solid attacking options in Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta, both of whom should start, most likely with Said Benrahma as the three sit in behind Ings.

Joe Willock took a knock against Man United but he’ll probably start in the Newcastle midfield alongside Sean Longstaff and the club's best player in Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian has been great since arriving in the North East and excels in every aspect of the game.

Alexander Isak should play through the middle and despite not scoring many this season, he’s looked good when he has played, performing very well at the weekend against Man Utd and helping bring others into play.

The back four of Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Fabian Schar and Sven Botman have been incredible this season and along with goalkeeper Nick Pope, they are the reason that this Newcastle team has been so incredibly tough to score against. Against the likes of Ings, you’d expect them to have another good day.

West Ham vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis

Under 2.5 goals is the most likely outcome here judging by odds of -125, with the Over available at the best price of +115. 

Given what we know of both teams, it seems like the clear choice and it’s where I’d personally be putting my money.

We know that West Ham have struggled with goals but on the flip side of that they generally are pretty solid defensively. Incredibly, Under 2.5 goals has landed in 78.6% of their Premier League games at the London Stadium this season, and just one game has gone Over 2.5 at home since the turn of the year.

Newcastle also end up in several low-scoring games, mostly down to that great backline and they have seen Under 2.5 goals in 53.8% of their games away from home this season. Just one of their last five on the road has hit the Over and I’d imagine we’ll see this one go Under 2.5 too.

West Ham vs Newcastle game info

Location: Stadium, City, England
Date: Wednesday, April 5, 2023
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET

West Ham vs Newcastle key injuries

West Ham: Gianluca Scamacca STR (Out).
Newcastle: Emil Krafth RB (Out), Miguel Almiron FWR (Out), Joe Willock CM (Questionable).

West Ham vs Newcastle recent form

Teams Last five matches
West Ham West Ham L-D-D-W-L
Newcastle Newcastle L-D-D-D-W

West Ham vs Newcastle weather

A sunny spring day in London will see temperatures around 50 degrees at kickoff.

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