Last season, the only MLS team in the Eastern Conference with fewer points than Toronto FC was FC Cincinnati.
This season, Cincinnati yet again finds itself rooted at the bottom of the conference, while Toronto is just three points back of second place. While it would be easy to assume Cincinnati is the same basement-dwelling outfit they have been in its first few seasons in the league, the metrics tell a different story.
Cincy is among the best in the league at creating chances thus far in 2022, and Toronto’s leaky defense could be the cure to its finishing woes. Here are our Toronto FC vs. FC Cincinnati picks for Saturday, April 30.
Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati match odds
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Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati betting tips
- Prediction: Toronto ML (-110)
- Prediction: Over 2.75 Asian total (-128)
- Best bet: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (-125)
Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati game info
• Location: BMO Field, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+, TSN
Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati betting preview
Weather
It is going to be a beautiful, albeit chilly day in Toronto on Saturday, with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the low 50s at kickoff. There is currently zero chance of any precipitation and very light wind.
Toronto FC vs FC Cincinnati predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Of all the words that could be used to describe Toronto FC’s matches this season, “boring” is not one of them. Their 5-4 defeat at the weekend to NYCFC saw them jump out to a 2-0 lead before conceding five straight goals – three of which came in the first 13 minutes after the halftime interval.
A red card late in the match allowed Toronto to pull two back, but they had little hopes of stealing a point as they were overrun by NYCFC’s potent attack that could have easily scored more. Toronto’s first eight matches have seen a total of 32 shots finding the back of the net, 17 of them for their opponents.
The Canadian side has conceded more shots on goal than any other team in MLS, including 11 last weekend, and they have not kept a clean sheet in 16 consecutive matches going back to last season.
As for Cincinnati, its 16 goals conceded are the second-most in the conference, but nine of those came in two matches, including a 5-0 loss at Austin in their season opener. They allowed 19 shots, eight of which were on target, in their 2-1 loss to LAFC at the weekend.
Rookie keeper Roman Celentano made six saves in his first-ever start, but a terrible mistake at the back gave the visitors the winning goal just 11 minutes from time. Cincinnati’s biggest issue this season has not been its defense, but rather its offense. Luciano Acosta’s 32 chances created are more than anybody else has in the league, and his 25 chances created from open play are seven more than the next-best player.
Unfortunately for him, he has just two assists on the season as his teammates are failing to capitalize on his creativity. Despite having the fifth-most key passes in MLS this season, they have put just 36 of their 109 shots on frame and have the third-most missed big chances in the league with 14.
Additionally, Cincinnati’s xG differential is the eighth-highest heading into this weekend. Making matters worse is how little possession the side gets in their opponents' area. While it sits in the middle of the league in entries into the box, Cincinnati has the seventh-fewest touches inside the opposition’s 18-yard area.
Forward Brandon Vazquez has five of their nine goals this season, one of just three players on the roster to score, but he missed the match with LAFC and is questionable for Saturday’s tilt. If he is unable to go, it would be a huge blow for an attack that has failed to score in half of their matches. Toronto has issues of its own at the offensive end, but they are the exact opposite of their visitors.
Whereas Cincinnati is missing chances, Toronto struggles to create them but the club is finishing the ones they have with lethal efficiency. Forward Jesus Jimenez has six goals this season, tied for the league lead with just eight shots on goal. His 3.5 goals above xG easily lead the league.
Toronto is taken just 61 total shots this season, a staggering 19 fewer than the second-worst club. That said, they have put 32 on net, making TFC the only team in the league to have better than 42% of their shots on frame. This matchup will likely come down to who can take chances, and it’s hard to argue with Toronto’s form at the moment.
While they have had real struggles on the road this season, TFC have won each of their last three home matches by a 2-1 score. They’ve also not been shut out in their last 12 matches going back to last season, while Cincinnati has failed to score in three of its four road matches this year.
It also doesn’t help that Cincinnati could again be without multiple starters, including Geoff Cameron, whose vaccination status kept him from traveling to Canada last season. I like Toronto to take all three points when the final whistle blows.
Prediction: Toronto moneyline (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The odds of over 2.5 goals in this match are heavily juiced, and rightly so. Toronto has scored 12 goals in their last five matches, averaging 1.75 goals over four home matches. In Toronto’s eight matches this season, the total has cleared 2.5 in all except their 1-1 season opener with Dallas.
On the other side, Cincinnati is allowing two goals per match on the road this season on 1.52 xGA. Cincinnati is also kept just one clean sheet all season.
Additionally, the xGA for both teams ranks among the three worst in MLS. Rather than pay the juice, I suggest taking the Asian total at over 2.75 goals.
I fully expect more than three goals to be scored, but you can at least get a push on half the wager if it’s another 2-1 finish for Toronto, while getting a win on the other half at a solid price.
Prediction: Asian total Over 2.75 goals (-135 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The 53 shots on goal allowed by Toronto are the most in the league, and Cincinnati’s 44 are the fifth-most. Even with Cincinnati’s finishing issues, I find it difficult to believe it will fail to take advantage of Toronto’s defensive struggles.
On the flip side, I would be shocked if Toronto did not yet again find the back of the net multiple times. Since the aforementioned 1-1 draw for Toronto, a wager for both teams to score with more than 2.5 total goals has hit in each of their last seven matches.
I see no reason why it won’t hit for the eighth straight match this weekend, which is why it’s easily my favorite play.
Prediction: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals (-125 at DraftKings)
