Tuesday marks a game with huge ramifications in the Premier League title race as Liverpool travel to St Mary’s Stadium to face Southampton.
If the Saints were to win, it would hand Man City the Premier League trophy. Meanwhile, Liverpool with their inferior goal difference need to score plenty to gain ground on Pep Guardiola’s men.
Will the Premier League title be decided on Tuesday? Don’t miss our Southampton vs. Liverpool tips and predictions to find out.
Southampton vs Liverpool match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Southampton vs Liverpool betting tips
Predictions made on 5/16/2022 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Southampton vs Liverpool game info
• Location: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton, England
• Date: Tuesday, May 17, 2022
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN
Southampton vs Liverpool betting preview
Weather
A cloudy Tuesday will eventually lead to rain around the time of kick-off with temperatures around 60 degrees.
Injuries
Southampton: Valentino Livramento RB (Out), Fraser Forster GK (Questionable), Stuart Armstrong STR Questionable).
Liverpool: Mohamed Salah FWR (Out), Virgil van Dijk CB (Out), Fabinho DM (Out).
Southampton vs Liverpool predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Tuesday could be a defining night for the Premier League title race with second-place Liverpool traveling to Southampton. City sit four points clear of Liverpool with one game left compared to Liverpool’s two, including this one.
The reality is that even a draw effectively puts them out of contention. Heading into this game, Liverpool have a goal difference of seven behind City. That means it’s essential that they not only win on Tuesday but put Southampton to the sword and score a lot of goals.
Southhampton come into this in awful form as in their past four games, they’ve lost three and drawn once. They’ve been confident about avoiding relegation for a long time and it feels like their players are already on the beach and not focused on the task in hand.
This is a team who have only one win in their past 10 Premier League games and it’s unlikely they cause too much of a problem for Liverpool, who are currently in electric form. When these two teams meet it usually ends in a Liverpool win, with the Reds winning eight of their past nine meetings in all competitions.
Liverpool have won 14 of their past 16 in the Premier League and coming in fresh from a victory in the FA Cup Final against Chelsea on Saturday. That win over Chelsea gave the club their second trophy of the season and they still have the Premier League and a Champions League final in their sights.
That glory came with some problems as two of their best players in Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk both got injured. It’s almost certain that we’ll see Joel Matip and Ibrahima Konate at the heart of defense with van Dijk injured. Diego Jota will come in for Mo Salah and we might see Roberto Firmino come in, allowing Sadio Mane a rest.
Curtis Jones and James Milner could very well come into midfield and there’s a real chance that Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson will make way for Joe Gomez and Konstantinos Tsimikas.
Southampton come into this incredibly fresh, having not played for 10 days, and that rest time could well have a huge impact on the outcome. Ralph Hasenhüttl should stick with a 4-4-2 and his hopes will be based around Oriol Romeu disrupting the Liverpool midfield and James Ward-Prowse using his passing range to create chances for Che Adams and Armando Broja.
This season has been a mixed bag for Southampton with some great results intertwined with some dreadful performances. The players will be up for ruining Liverpool’s title bid but it’s simply not going to be that easy, even against a possible Liverpool second-string unit.
Liverpool is a team that is formidable both mentally and physically, and I expect it do the business here and put away Southampton.
Prediction: Liverpool (-245 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
We all know about Liverpool’s goal-scoring ability and I’m confident that they’ll win this game. However, the odds of Over 2.5 goals at -225 simply have to be faded.
We know Liverpool come into this needing goals to make up for their differential on Man City, but you can’t overlook the tough physical strain that their FA Cup Final victory would have had on the players. As much as Southampton’s performances appear to have dropped off as the season has drawn to a close, this is a club who have a solid record at home.
There have been Under 2.5 goals in 61.1% of all Southampton’s games at St Mary’s Stadium this season and they’ll put up a fight against Liverpool. The odds of +194 are great value considering the tiredness that Liverpool will be playing through, having played over the weekend.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+194 at FanDuel)
Best bet
I’m very confident that Liverpool will win this game but I’m also baking on the fact that it will struggle to score the volume of goals needed to get within range of Man City.
The bookies clearly believe that the thirst for goals will make this a high-scoring affair, but I just don’t think that’s realistic. For that reason, my best bet is for Liverpool to win this game 2-0 at +850.
If you’re feeling conservative, then you can also take Liverpool to win 1-0 at +1,000 to give you some safety. Either way, I’m expecting a low-scoring Liverpool win, which gives its talented defense keeps another clean sheet.
Pick: Liverpool to win 2-0 (+850 at bet365)
