Two European giants collide this Saturday afternoon as Real Madrid take on Borussia Dortmund at MetLife Stadium in a high-stakes FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinal.
Both clubs have the firepower to advance, but when it comes to betting value, our eyes are on rising star Gonzalo Garcia. He’s been in red-hot form, and our top Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund predictions back him to make another big impact in this showdown.
Find out why in my FIFA Club World Cup free picks for Saturday, July 5.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund picks and predictions
My Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund best bet: Gonzalo Garcia to score or assist (-105 at bet365)
It’s shocking to think that Real Madrid’s most important player at the Club World Cup is someone who had played fewer than 80 minutes in the first team in the entirety of his career. Yet, Gonzalo Garcia has taken his chance and run with it.
Kylian Mbappe’s health looked to be a concern coming into the tournament, but Xabi Alonso turned to the youth academy product and he’s delivered in ways that couldn’t be expected. His goal against Juventus proved to be the only one of the match, and it gave him a tally in three of his four outings.
Garcia’s only match so far without a goal came in the 3-1 win over Pachuca, a match that saw Madrid’s Raul Asencio sent off after just seven minutes. Yet he still managed to contribute, assisting what would be the winning goal just before halftime.
And while Mbappe is available again, it would be extremely difficult for Alonso to bench his hottest player. He also can bring back the French superstar in a more limited role to preserve his health for the upcoming campaign.
Garcia’s size and strength makes him difficult to handle, but it’s his constant movement both on and off the ball that will cause issues for Dortmund. He is always looking to make runs at the back line to create space for teammates, and they’ve often been the correct run.
Dortmund have conceded four goals in their last three matches, all to sides with far less talent than Madrid. Three of those goals have come from central strikers. With Nico Schlotterbach’s absence, their defense is lacking pace and Garcia will exploit that. At a price of -105, I’ll gladly back the young striker to continue his involvement.
Should Garcia not start, then my pivot for best bet would be to back Serhou Guirassy to put at least two shots on target. At a price of +260 at FanDuel, it’s far too high to pass up on given he has put 10 efforts on goal over his last three outings.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzalo Garcia to score or assist
Real Madrid Over 6.5 shots on target
Serhou Guirassy 1+ shots on target
Guirassy will get at least one effort on target unless things go completely sideways for Dortmund. He was literally their entire attack against Monterrey, attempting all six of their shots for the match and scoring twice from four shots on target.
The Guinean striker is in fine form and has managed multiple shots on target in three straight matches. Real Madrid won’t let him enjoy a shooting gallery the way others have, but he’ll get his chances.
Speaking of chances, Dortmund has been allowing a high rate of efforts to test their keeper. Of the 47 shots faced thus far, Dortmund has allowed 19 on-target efforts. That includes all three shots managed by Ulsan HD, and seven of Monterrey’s 14 attempts.
Real Madrid put 11 of their 21 attempts on target against Juventus, and put seven on frame in their match against Al Hilal. Those matches, like this one, will see two teams in a more open-pitch affair and it should lead to another high-volume accuracy outing for Los Blancos
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund odds
| Real Madrid | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| -163 | Moneyline | +400 |
| +320 | Draw | +320 |
| Over 2.5 (-175) | Total | Under 2.5 (+135) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
How to watch Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
| Location | Metlife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Saturday, 7-5-2025 |
| Time | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
| Weather | 84F, 10% chance of precipitation, 6 mph winds. |
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund key injuries
Real Madrid: Eder Militao D (Out), Eduardo Camavinga M (Out), Dani Carvajal D (Out), David Alaba D (Out), Ferland Mendy D (Out), Endrick F (Out).
Borussia Dortmund: Jobe Bellingham M (Out), Emre Can M (Out), Nico Schlotterbeck D (Out), Salih Ozcan M (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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