It will be a tense and hostile affair on Sunday evening as the United States and Mexico meet to decide the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup champion at NRG Stadium in Houston.
The Americans survived a hostile crowd and tiring legs to eke past Guatemala, while El Tri survived a physical match with Honduras.
I explain why the second half will belong to El Tri in our USA vs. Mexico predictions and free picks for July 6.
USA vs Mexico picks and predictions
My USA vs Mexico best bet: Mexico to score in 2nd half (-110 at bet365)
In their opening match against the Dominican Republic, the Mexican national team took a 1-0 lead into halftime thanks to an Edson Alvarez goal in the 44th minute. It was the first and only time that El Tri would see a goal scored before the intermission during this CONCACAF Gold Cup.
El Tri’s ensuing four matches in the competition have all been scoreless at halftime, but that’s when Javier Aguirre’s side has turned it on. Mexico came out of the gates against the Dominicans and scored inside 120 seconds, and added a third just a few minutes later.
Against Suriname, it was more of the same as Mexico won 2-0 on the back of a pair of goals from Cesar Montes. His tallies in the 57th and 63rd minutes would see El Tri claim first place in their group.
And while they failed to score against Costa Rica, their best chance of the match based on xG came when Raul Jimenez missed a header from point-blank range in the 56th minute.
Mexico got a goal four minutes after halftime against Saudi Arabia in the quarter-finals, and the semi-final win over Honduras yet again featured a quick goal as Jimenez scored the match’s only goal just five minutes into the second half.
The Americans have rotated very little, and it was evident in the second half against Guatemala that the starters are beginning to run out of gas. The likely loss of Tyler Adams to a hamstring injury also robs them of one of the most important players in the spine of the side.
Both Costa Rica and Guatemala have found second-half goals in the knockout stages, and Jimenez is the kind of player who can cause the Americans real issues at the back.
Jiminez and his El Tri teammates will yet again come out firing after intermission and score in the second half against the fading American legs.
USA vs Mexico same-game parlay (SGP)
Mexico to score in 2nd half
First half exact score 0-0
Both teams to score - No
The Americans have led at halftime in four of their five matches thus far, but it’s important to note the competition they’ve faced. The one time they didn’t was against Saudi Arabia, whom they narrowly defeated 1-0, and against whom Mexico also failed to score before halftime.
Mexico has allowed just 1.39 xG across their five matches, and hasn’t conceded in the last four outings. Opponents have managed just three shots on target over the last 360 minutes, and their physical style of play makes it challenging to build against them.
That’s why we’ll bank on El Tri once again heading into halftime with a scoreless stalemate. Their second-half goal will put them ahead, and they’ll see it out against a worn-down American side as they hold the Yanks scoreless.
USA vs Mexico odds
USA vs Mexico live odds
 USA |
 Mexico |
|
|---|---|---|
| +210 | Moneyline | +155 |
| +200 | Draw | +200 |
| Over 2.5 (+135) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
How to watch USA vs Mexico
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 7-6-2025 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fox Sports |
USA vs Mexico key injuries
USA: Johnny Cardoso M (Questionable).
Mexico: Luis Chavez M (Out)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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