PSG vs Monaco Predictions, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match

Rosu's prediction: Tensions are high at the Parc des Princes.

Emanuel Rosu - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Emanuel Rosu • Betting Analyst
Feb 23, 2026 • 19:12 ET • 4 min read
AS Monaco's Folarin Balogun in action with Paris St Germain's Joao Neves.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. AS Monaco's Folarin Balogun in action with Paris St Germain's Joao Neves.

PSG came back from 2-0 down to win the first leg in Monaco, but this is far from over.

There will be tension between the Ligue 1 rivals, and there should be plenty of action at both ends.

Given the name of the referee chosen for this encounter, my PSG vs. Monaco predictions and free betting picks expect cards in this much-anticipated Champions League encounter on Wednesday, February 25. 

PSG vs Monaco picks and predictions

My PSG vs Monaco best bet: Over 4.5 cards (+125 at Sports Interaction)

UEFA chose Romanian referee Istvan Kovacs to lead this derby in the Champions League. Kovacs, one of the top officials in the game, has a reputation for never taking it easy, and I can't see PSG vs. Monaco not getting heated.

Kovacs was involved in five Champions League matches this season. He showed a total of 24 bookings, averaging just under five per game. He's the type of referee who can beat records for bookings if he feels things are getting out of his control.

There were even two games this season when he showed as many as nine cards.

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PSG vs Monaco same-game parlay (SGP)

Over 4.5 cards

Folarin Balogun 1+ shots on target

Vitinha 1+ shots on target

Nuno Mendes 1+ shots on target

Folarin Balogun scored Monaco's both goals last week, so I'm not leaving him out of my parlay. I'll have him included for 1+ shots on target. And I'll also go for shots on target in the case of two PSG players, Vitinha and Nuno Mendes.

Vitinha has fired at least one shot on target in six of PSG's previous seven Champions League outings. The streak included three shots on target per match on no fewer than three occasions.

Nuno Mendes is not doing badly himself. PSG's left back is one of the modern-day defenders known for his attacking appetite. He troubled the keepers at both Sporting and Newcastle, but he couldn't hit the target against Monaco a week ago. I am counting on that to change this time.

PSG vs Monaco odds

PSG vs Monaco odds

PSG PSG Monaco Monaco
-357 Moneyline +700
+575 Draw +575
Over 2.5 (-323) Total Under 2.5 (+220)

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

How to watch PSG vs Monaco

Location Parc des Princes, Paris, France
Date Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Time 3:00 p.m. ET
TV Prime Video, Paramount+
Weather Clear playing conditions. 

PSG vs Monaco key injuries

PSG: Fabian Ruiz CM (Out), Quentin Ndjantou CM (Out), Senny Mayulu CM (Out), Ousmane Dembele FW (Out).
Monaco: Lukás Hrádecký GK (Out), Christian Mawissa CB (Out), Eric Dier CB (Out), Kassoum Ouattara LB (Out), Aleksandr Golovin CM (Out), Maghnes Akliouche FW (Out).

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Emanuel Rosu
Betting Analyst

Emanuel Roșu studied public administration but only to have a degree in something. He was always passionate about football. Writing about it, that is, as we've seen him play and he should feel fortunate he never took that road. He is based in Bucharest and has reported on Champions League, Europa League, and European Championship matches for various media outlets in Europe. He wrote stories for The Guardian, BBC, FourFourTwo, and many more. He represents Romania in the vote for the "Ballon d'Or", the most important individual trophy in world football.

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