Porto vs Inter Milan Picks and Predictions: Can Portuguese Side Fight Back at Home?

Faced with a 1-0 aggregate deficit, Porto returns home where they've won 17 of their last 21 matches. Can that success continue on Tuesday? Read our Champions League betting picks below to find out.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Mar 14, 2023 • 13:24 ET • 4 min read
Galeno Porto Champions League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Two teams desperate to win silverware in 2023 will seek advancement to the Champions League quarterfinals on Tuesday, as Porto hosts Inter Milan in a Round of 16 second-leg matchup.

With both teams sitting well adrift of the leaders in their respective leagues, both Porto and Inter will be hoping to make a deep run in Europe. The Italian side is 18 points behind Napoli, while Benfica has an eight-point advantage over their Portuguese rivals. It makes Tuesday’s encounter all the more important — along with Inter’s narrow lead after the first leg.

Can keeper Andre Onana repeat his heroics of the first match, or will Porto’s home crowd help spur them to victory? We dive into all the storylines and betting angles in our Porto vs Inter Milan free betting picks for Tuesday, March 14. 

Porto vs Inter Milan best odds

Porto vs Inter Milan picks and predictions

Porto hasn’t had the season they hoped for in domestic play, but injuries have taken a hefty toll on the club this season.

They’re unlikely to catch Benfica — who have already clinched their spot in the next round of the Champions League — but will hope to join them with a win on Tuesday. Their injury issues are beginning to finally subside, and while they will be without Otavio due to his red card from the first leg they look to field a strong side.

Playing at home will be highly beneficial for Porto. Just three times this season have they lost at the Dragao, winning 17 of their 21 matches across all competitions in front of their supporters. Two of those three defeats saw them reduced to 10 men. Their last home match, a 3-2 win over Estoril on Friday, saw their lead evaporate twice before a penalty in the 73rd minute secured all three points.

Porto will feel unfortunate to be trailing after the first leg. They held an advantage in xG, but Onana denied them time and again in one of his best performances of the season. The defeat ended a 22-match unbeaten run, and Porto will be looking to take advantage of a defensive side that has been inconsistent away from home and will be missing Milan Skriniar. 

Inter Milan’s away form has been quite spotty, but it was January the last time they tasted victory away from the San Siro. In fact, their last eight true away matches (not counting the Milan derby) have seen them suffer four defeats and record just two wins.

Their current three-match winless run on the road has coincided with a sputtering offensive output, with their goal against Spezia being the only one scored in that timeframe.

Speaking of Spezia, manager Simone Inzaghi was very upset with his team after their 2-1 defeat. Their only goal came from the penalty spot as Romelu Lukaku dispatched, but it was negated by a Spezia spot kick just four minutes later. It will be a tough ask to suddenly reverse those road woes and pick up just a second win in their nine all-time trips away to Portuguese sides.

With just four goals total in their last four — one of which came against Porto after they went down to 10 men — I don’t see them adding to their advantage.

When you factor in the defensive woes on the road, having registered only two clean sheets in 15 true away outings, all signs point to Porto getting a win in regulation to at least force extra time. Take Porto to do just that via the 3-way line at a very enticing price. 

My best bet: Porto (+170 at Caesars)

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Porto vs Inter Milan side analysis

Porto are a force to be reckoned with at home. They’ve won 17 and lost just three with a draw as well in 21 home matches, with two of those defeats coming after having a player sent off. They have multiple players who can put the ball in the back of the net, even with Otavio suspended, and they have leadership and experience in the back with Pepe holding the line. 

Inter have won 12 of their last 17 in all competitions, but their road form is a whole other story. They’ve gone three straight without a victory away from home, with just one goal scored in that time.

Lukaku is expected to be on the bench despite his goal in the first leg, with Eden Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez leading the line. That’s despite Dzeko not having a goal or assist in his last four starts, and Martinez having just one goal in his last four.

Inter have played eight times in Portugal in UEFA competitions, suffering three defeats with just one win and four draws. Two of those visits have been to Porto, who have a win and a draw over the Italian giants at home.

That historical data is reflected somewhat in the lines, as Porto are the slight favorite with their odds coming down more as we get closer to kickoff. A draw is the outlier and isn’t an outcome many are anticipating given the stakes. 

Porto vs Inter Milan Over/Under analysis

The Under 2.5 is slightly favored in this contest and it’s a tricky line to handicap. Porto have scored three or more goals on their own in seven of their last 12 home outings, with the total going Over in eight of those. They’ve also kept seven clean sheets in that span. Their last three matches overall have gone Over, ending a run that saw six of seven go Under.

As for the visitors, low-scoring affairs have been Inter’s forte of late. Their 2-1 loss to Spezia ended a run of three straight Unders and marked just the second Over in their last eight matches. Inter have kept five clean sheets in that span, but only one has come away. Five of their last seven away from home have gone Over the 2.5-goal mark.

If I had to put my money somewhere I'd go with the Under. I can see this being a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Porto, given Inter’s defensive issues and how they'll likely focus on defending and hitting on the counter. An early goal could undo all of that, however, which is why I’d recommend playing a live total rather than predicting this one beforehand. 

Porto vs Inter Milan game info

Location: Dragao Stadium, Porto, Portugal
Date: Tuesday, March 14, 2023
Time: 4:00 pm ET
TV: Paramount+

Porto vs Inter Milan key injuries

Porto: Otavio F (Out), Gabriel Veron M (Out), Evanilson F (Out), Galeno M (Out).  
Inter Milan: Milan Skriniar D (Doubtful), Robin Gosens M (Out), Joaquin Correa F (Questionable).

Porto vs Inter Milan weather

Fans and players will have nothing to complain about as it pertains to the conditions Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s at kickoff and no rain is expected at any point in the match. 

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