Manchester City vs PSG Picks: Tough to Fade City, Even at this Price

May 4, 2021 |
By: Covers Staff
Manchester City vs PSG Picks: Tough to Fade City, Even at this Price
Manchester City are just one game away from clinching their first Champions League final berth, and oddsmakers are giving them a good chance to do so against PSG Tuesday.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Manchester City are just one game away from clinching their first Champions League final berth, and oddsmakers are giving them a good chance to do so against PSG Tuesday.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We're halfway to an all-English Champions League final – but Manchester City still has work to do to fulfill its end.

The Champions League betting favorites will look to secure their spot in the championship Tuesday as they tangle with Paris-Saint Germain at Etihad Stadium. Manchester City took a significant step toward advancing to the final with a 2-1 away victory over a PSG side that saw its comeback aspirations thwarted by Idrissa Gueye's red card in the 77th minute.

These are our favorite Champions League bets for Manchester City vs. PSG on May 4.

Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

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Champions League sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Manchester City opened as an even-money favorite last Wednesday at DraftKings and stretched out to -165 by game-day morning. As of 12:45 p.m. ET, Man City is -152 while attracting 56 percent of bets and 44 percent of money, Paris Saint-Germain (+360) is seeing 34 percent of bets/45 percent of cash, and Draw (+335) is landing 10 percent of bets/11 percent of money. The total opened at 2.5 (Over -139), and the price got as high as Over -177 before backing off to Over -159. The Over is taking 90 percent of bets/80 percent of money.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain betting preview

Injuries

Manchester City: No injuries to report.
Paris Saint-Germain: Kylian Mbappe F (Probable), Juan Bernat LB (Out), Alexandre Letellier G (Out). 

Moneyline pick

Manchester City would love to leave nothing to chance in Tuesday's return engagement and are hefty -150 favorites to complete the two-game sweep of their Ligue 1 opponents. Man City looked every bit like the best domestic club on the planet in the first meeting, dominating the possession rate (59.4 to 40.6) while successfully completing 92 percent of their pass attempts.

There's reason for optimism among PSG bettors who have seen the French powers win each of their previous 10 away games. And while superstar striker Kylian Mbappe sat out a 2-1 victory over Lens on Saturday with a calf injury, he has traveled with the team to Manchester. He suffered a thigh injury prior to the first-leg match but recovered in time and played all 90 minutes in defeat.

Whether or not Mbappe plays might not matter, given how dominant City have looked for the majority of the 2020-21 season. They're on the cusp of their first-ever Champions League finals appearance (as hard as that is to believe), and with no key players expected to miss this game, they should complete the sweep Tuesday.

PICK: Manchester City (-150)

Over/Under pick

This pick might ultimately come down to whether Mbappe plays – and while there's nothing scientific to this assumption, the fact that he traveled with the team bodes well for his availability for what amounts to the biggest game of PSG's season. His absence would put even more pressure on Brazilian mega-star Neymar, who ranks second on the team in goals in the tournament (six).

We expect PSG to bring a hyper-aggressive offensive approach to Etihad Stadium, needing either a two-goal victory or a one-goal triumph with more away goals than Manchester City scored last week to advance. That's a tall order against a Manchester City team that has allowed multiple goals in just three of its past 23 home games, with 14 clean sheets over that stretch. 

We wouldn't be surprised to see an identical scoreline to the first leg, which makes us confident in the O2.5 play here.

PICK: Over 2.5 (-175)

Team prop pick

With a couple of low-odds plays already on the board, let's look for something with a more tantalizing payout. And we'll be taking advantage of the need for PSG to be aggressive from the start.

Manchester City have been impenetrable at home for the majority of the past six months, but have shown cracks in recent weeks, allowing multiple goals in three of their last six games at Etihad Stadium. And two of those teams (Southampton and Leeds) aren't exactly world-beaters, which provides further optimism that PSG can generate some offense.

Look for the visitors to strike in the opening half, an outcome that offers surprisingly stout odds given PSG's firepower.

PICK: PSG First Half Goal (+125)

Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain betting card

  • Manchester City (-150)
  • Over 2.5 (-175)
  • PSG First Half Goal (+125)

Picks made on 5/3/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET

Champions League parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Champions League Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain picks, you could win $48.93 on a $10 bet?

Use our Champions League parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on Champions League soccer?

You can bet on Champions League soccer at most online sportsbooks and mobile apps. Find the best sportsbooks in your region to bet on Champions League soccer odds.

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